WHEN HAMAS WINS,
BLAME THE U.S.
Tuesday January 17, 2006
I am here to say, loud and clear,
plain and simple, that no matter what happens on January 25th, Hamas
has already won in the Palestinian election. If Hamas wins the 30%
of the Palestinian electorate that they are expected to win, a
percentage that puts them in a close race with the governing Fatah,
it will be a big win. If Hamas wins even more than 30% of the
electorate, if they outstrip Fatah, it will be an even bigger win.
Whatever happens, just being on the ballot, is a win for Hamas.
Becoming the plurality is one of their dreams come true. Their other
dream, of course, will never come true. That dream is the
elimination of Israel. So what happens if/when Hamas actually wins
in the Palestinian elections scheduled for January 25th? The
Palestinian people, as we have come to know them, will disappear.
Hamas will create a new Palestinian culture, a more religious, less
economically developed culture, a safer place for Palestinians to
live, a more dangerous spot on the world map.
It sounds ridiculous, even absurd,
it seems counterintuitive, even beyond belief, but in certain ways,
a victory for Hamas also benefits those Palestinians who are non-Hamas
supporters. Why? Because a victory for Hamas is a victory of
extremists over corruption. The Palestinian Authority, since its
inception, has been a hotbed of corruption, ineptitude and greed. It
is a legacy handed down by founding father Yasser Arafat and
embraced by his successor Mahmoud Abbas. Simply put, casting a vote
for Hamas is voting to oust corrupt Palestinian political leaders.
For the Palestinian voter this election is not about Israel, it is
not even about a Palestinian state. Only Westerners think otherwise.
For Palestinians, January 25th is a day devoted to very personal and
very local issues. It is a day to say "ENOUGH" to monies that were
misappropriated, to billions of dollars in foreign aid that never
trickled down to the people, to leaders who stole and pocketed
gargantuan sums intended for the people. It is a day of empowerment.
A vote for Hamas on election day is a vote to end the true legacy of
Yasser Arafat. A vote for Hamas on election day is a vote to
censure the United States, Europe and all Westerners involved in
policy decisions that ignored the people of the Palestinian
Authority and, instead, trusted in Palestinian leadership.
The United States and her allies
are truly to blame for much of the economic plight of the
Palestinian people. Where were the bean counters? Where was the
demand for fiscal accountability? The EU and the US just threw money
at an ephemeral entity called the Palestinian Authority and hoped
that it would some how, some way find its way and do some good.
Instead, it found its way under Fatah mattresses and into Fatah
cookie jars. Abbas has already said he will not run again. In truth,
it does not matter one little bit what Abbas does. Abbas has been
irrelevant from the beginning. Abbas has played little role in
forging any change for the people he promised to protect. A
vote for Hamas on election day is a voting turning the Palestinian
Authority into an entity akin to a Little Iran. The biggest
difference between true Iran and Little Iran is that Iran had
educational, scientific and technological infrastructures in place
before they had ruling religious leaders. The Mullahs did not rip
that down that infrastructure and so a thriving economy continues.
Palestinians have never reached that level of advancement.
So what will the Palestinian
Authority look like after Hamas wins 30% or more of the Palestinian
popular vote on January 25th? How will the Palestinian state be run?
* Educational institutions and curriculum will have no chance for
reform, Israel will never be seen as a neighbor or written into
texts
* Science and tech schools will be replaced with religious schools
* There will be no chance of economic growths and gains in the new
generation.
* Attitudes toward the West will boomerang
* Religious police will be instituted and anyone who does not
conform to fundamentalism will be punished publicly
* A female dress code will be instituted and enforced
* TV and radio will revert to Muslim-only programming
* Culture and tone will be exclusively Muslim
* There will be an exodus of wealthy, successful, future-oriented
liberal Palestinians
* The situation will spiral down
* Palestinians will get more safety on the streets and less
corruption. There will be no more kidnappings. Anyone who breaks the
law will be publicly humiliated and even executed.
After the election there will be a
proud public display of a change in policy and attitude toward
Israel and the West. And then there will be an inevitable
attack. Israel will counter attack and search out leaders, even
political leaders and cut off major sections of this new state.
Israel will react in the way they know best, they will cut the
Palestinians off and protect themselves. For Israel,
Palestinians under Hamas will be more dangerous in the short run,
but much more manageable. It will be much clearer for Israel to
understand the new state of Palestinians and Palestine and to create
a strategic response to the new threat facing them. Actually, they
have already worked out the scenarios. Israelis like security to be
black and white and very clear cut. A Hamas led Palestine is the
textbook example of a clear cut situation. That is what will happen
when/if Hamas wins the Palestinian election. And the United
States is to blame.
The PA Will Cancel Elections
I'm Predicting:
There is almost no doubt in my mind that the Palestinian Authority
will postpone their upcoming parliamentary elections. I have been
saying this for 6 months. Why? Most important is that Fatah, the
established Palestinian leadership, is having a hard time getting
votes and it looks very doubtfully that they can win a significant
plurality over Hamas. According to the latest polls Hamas will
gain by 31% to Fatah's 35% - almost a dead heat. The same
polling, a short while ago, had Fatah gaining 36.7% and Hamas
gaining only 21.6%. Poll increases in the final stretch of
an election are significant signs of great gains. Fatah does not
want Hamas to win. Neither does the United States, Israel, Europe
and even the Muslim world. A Hamas victory will mean a more
radical Palestine. Current PA leadership is paralyzed. They
need the time to gain support by promising a safer future, by
providing social services and by providing jobs.
If not, we will see another cancelled election.
If not, we will see Hamas in power.
The Saudis hosted two important
guests this week.
President Assad of Syria and Muqata al Sadr of Iraq
came to visit.
Bashar Assad is facing
tremendous international pressure to cooperate with the
investigations concerning the role Syria played in the
assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in
Lebanon. Muqata al Sadr is the radical Shiite leader who led the
uprising last year. It seems that Saudi Arabia is trying to
play peacemaker. Saudi Arabia tried to influence Assad to
cooperate with the investigation. Saudi Arabia wanted to convince
al Sadr that a continued period of Shiite quiet in Iraq is
essential. The Saudi king wanted to emphasize how important
cooperation, that it is the best way forward for everyone. The
Sunni Saudi king extended his hand to show that Sunnis and Shiites
can get along.
Saudi Arabia has its own agenda.
They know that the less trouble there is in the area, the more
they will be left alone. The more they are left alone, the less
pressure put on them to change their style of leadership and
government.
