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Michelle Davis, Global Latitudes Org, Washington, DC, USA

PCPO Poll:  62.7% PA shouldn't honor commitments to Israel, 47.2% dissolve PA, 74.4% content with Hamas gov't w/out PLO

Dear Sir,

The target of this survey is to examine the Palestinians' public opinion with regard to the Israeli national elections, Ehud Olmert's plan and the new Palestinian government formed by Hamas. We have furthermore made the attempt to probe the political conditions prevailing after the Israeli raid on Jericho's prison and the abduction of Mr. Ahmed Saadat, the Secretary-General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), and his companions and to cast light on the extent of Israel's compliance with the deals concluded with the Palestinians. This poll tried furthermore to explore the public's attitude towards Britain and the USA, which is said have allowed Israel to raid Jericho's prison. All this besides other political, economical and security key issues. If you wish to view the whole poll results, so all you need is to revert to  our website:  www.pcpo.ps Please feel quite free to contact us immediately if you have any questions  or inquiry on any issue of this poll. With our good wishes and best regards,

Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director of PCPO

In a survey on the Palestinian public opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali.

(47.2%) Agree to various degrees to the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority, (50.5%) oppose to various degrees the dissolution of  the Palestinian Authority. (74.4%) Are to various degrees content with the Palestinian government  formed by Hamas. (82.4%) Are worried about their personal security. (65.4%) Support to various degrees the PA President Mr. Mahmoud Abbas. (85.5%) Don't trust Israel's commitment to the accords signed with  Palestinian Authority. (88.5%) Demand from Britain and the USA to force Israel to return Mr. Ahmed  Saadat and his companions to the Palestinian Authority. (50.7%) Are opposing to various extents the abduction of foreigners and the destruction of cultural centers belonging to EU countries. (18.6%) Believe that the Israeli Labor Party is the most efficient party for  the settlement of the Palestinian - Israeli conflict. (49.4%) Believe that the unilateral plan of Ehud Olmert will lead to the  continuation of the conflict in the region.


Beit Sahour: Information Section

In the recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil kukali during the period from March )19-23), 2006 and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO), a random sample of (1068) Palestinian adults over 18 years old, representing the various demographic specimens of the people living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, has been investigated. The results of the poll revealed that the majority of the Palestinian people believe that the plan of the acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert regarding the unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank by September 2010 without reaching a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinians will lead to the continuation of the conflict in the region and will not warrant the stability and security of Israel. Dr. Kukali commented on this by saying that Israel cannot establish permanent borders with the Palestinian Authority on its own without the approval of the Palestinians. It will be then difficult for Israel to obtain the security and peace unless it fulfills the desires and aspirations of the Palestinian people by achieving a fair peace with them. He added that (18.6%) of the Palestinian society believe that Labor Party is the most efficient party for the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. One of the most significant findings of this poll, Dr. Kukali found out, that almost the half of the Palestinians, specifically (47.2%) are to various degrees in favor of the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority because it seems that the Palestinian people lost hope that the present Authority will finally lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state side by side to the Jewish one on the basis of the international legitimacy and the principle of land against peace as provided for in the UN resolutions. Dr. Kukali pointed furthermore out that (74.4%) of the Palestinians (59.1%) in Gaza and (84.0%) in the West Bank are to various degrees content with the Palestinian government formed by Hamas without the participation of Fateh and the other PLO's factions. Dr. Kukali believes that the majority of the Palestinians are of the opinion that relying on the political settlements with international warranties seems to be of no real weight on the ground as long as Israel can revoke such settlements or agreements at its own discretion. The poll results have indicated that the majority of the Palestinian public, specifically (63.4%), don't trust the arguments made by the USA and Britain as a justification for the withdrawal of their monitors from the jail at Jericho and by doing that have given Israel the opportunity to capture the PFLP's Secretary-General, Mr. Ahmed Saadat, and his comrades. Dr. Kukali referred also to the fact that the majority of the Palestinians felt insulted upon watching the satellite TV pictures showing the Palestinian security men captured and humiliated by taking their clothes off and keeping just  the underwear on them. Lastly, Dr. Kukali concluded that the majority of the Palestinians disagree to abducting foreigners and demolishing cultural centers belonging to countries of the European Union and to other countries as a reaction to the US-American and British attitude in the Israeli raid on Jericho's prison and the subsequent abduction of the PFLP Secretary General and his comrades.

Findings

Q.1 Do you think that the plan of the acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of the unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank by September 2010 without reaching a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinians will lead  to?
1. A warranty for Israel security 26.5%
2. Instability of Israel security 40.8%
3. Outbreak of disputes and continuation of wars in the region 31.3%
4. Don't know1.4%

Q.2 What will be, according to your opinion, the impact of the uni-lateral withdrawal of Israel from the West Bank on the Palestinian side?
1. It will boost the position of Hamas and weaken the position of Fateh.29.8%
2. It will boost the position of Fateh and weaken the position of Hamas.12.2%
3. It will absolutely have no effect.55.5%
4. Don't know.2.5%

Q.3 What are the consequences, you think, of a unilateral pullout of Israel from the West Bank?
1.The establishment of a Palestinian state and the recognition of the State of Israel.11.7%
2. Extension of the area of the Palestinian Authority jurisdiction with-out being obliged to recognize the State of Israel.36.9%
3. Continuation of the conflict in the region.49.4%
4. Don't know.2.0%

Q.4 Which Israeli party, according to your opinion, is in the position to
solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
1.  Kadima17.6%
2. Likud14.7%
3.  Labor Party18.6%
4.  None48.0%
5.  Don't know1.1%

Q.5 Do you think, or not, that Hamas is capable of efficiently running the Palestinian government for the next term?
1.  Yes, capable24.4%
2.  Capable to some extent40.4%
3.  Incapable33.0%
4.  Don't know.2.2%

Q.6 Do you agree or disagree to Fateh's decline to participate in forming a government of national unity after the raid of the    Israeli forces on Jericho's prison?
1.  Strongly agree12.6%
2.  Somewhat agree42.6%
3.  Somewhat disagree28.7%
4.  Strongly disagree15.5%
5.  Don't know0.6%

Q.7 Mr. Azzam El-Ahmed, Head of Fateh group in the Palestinian Legislative Council, said:" We don't demand from Hamas to change its program, but advise it only to separate its program as an authority from its program as a party ".  Do you agree or disagree to this advice?
1.  Strongly agree23.3%
2.  Somewhat agree51.7%
3.  Somewhat disagree13.7%
4.  Strongly disagree10.7%
5.  Don't know0.6%

Q.8 Do you still agree, or now disagree, to the demand of the President of the Palestinian Authority that Hamas should acknowledge the agreements concluded with Israel?
1.  Strongly agree12.1%
2.  Somewhat agree34.7%
3.  Somewhat disagree31.4%
4.  Strongly disagree21.0%
5.  Don't know0.8%

Q.9 After the formation of the Palestinian government under the leadership of Hamas without the participation of Fateh and the other PLO's factions, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future?
1.  Pessimistic36.5%
2.  Optimistic60.8%
3.  Don't know2.7%

Q.10 Are you content or discontent with the Palestinian government formed by Hamas without the participation of Fateh and the other PLO's factions?
1.  Extremely content19.6%
2.  Somewhat content54.8%
3.  Somewhat discontent15.3%
4.  Extremely discontent9.6%
5.  Don't know0.7%

Q.11 Do you think the Palestinian Authority should abide by the agreements concluded with Israel, or not?
1.  Yes33.2%
2.  No62.7%
3.  Don't know4.1%

Q.12 Subsequent to the raid of the Israeli forces on Jericho's prison, to what extent do you trust Israel's commitment to the deals signed with the Palestinian Authority?
1.  Strongly trust1.6%
2.  Somewhat trust11.7%
3.  Somewhat distrust30.5%
4.  Strongly distrust55.0%
5.  Don't know1.2%

Q.13 Do you agree or disagree to those demands calling upon the President of the Palestinian Authority to dissolve the Palestinian Authority?
1.  Strongly agree7.1%
2.  Somewhat agree40.1%
3.  Somewhat disagree25.1%
4.  Strongly disagree25.4%
5.  Don't know2.3%


Q.14 To which degree are you convinced of the arguments made by the USA and Britain as a justification for the withdrawal of their monitors at the jail in Jericho?
1.  Totally convinced1.4%
2.  Somewhat convinced35.1%
3. Not convinced63.4%
4.  Don't know.0.1%


Q.15 Do you agree or disagree to what the Brigades of Abu Ali Mustafa (military wing of the PFLP) have done, namely abducting foreigners and demolishing cultural centers belonging to countries of the EU and others as a reaction to the US-American and British attitude in the Israeli raid on Jericho's prison and the subsequent abduction of the Secretary-General of the PFLP and his comrades?
1.  Strongly agree14.5%
2.  Somewhat agree33.7%
3.  Somewhat disagree27.2%
4.  Strongly disagree23.5%
5.  Don't know1.1%


Q.16 Do you think it's the moral obligation of the USA and Britain to force Israel to return Mr. Ahmed Saadat and his comrades to the Palestinian Authority?                      1.  Yes88.5%
2.  No10.1%
3.  Don't know1.4%


Q.17 Whom do you burden the responsibility for the raid on Jericho's jail and the capture of the PFLP Secretary-General, Mr. Ahmed Saadat, and his companions?
1.  The Palestinian Authority10.5%
2.  Britain15.1%
3.  USA14.7%
4.  The three parties58.6%
5.  Don't know1.1%

Q.18 Did you feel insulted when watching the TV pictures of the satellite stations showing the Palestinian security men captured and just keeping their underwear?
1.  Yes, to a high degree80.7%
2.  Yes, to an intermediate degree16.0%
3.  No, at all    1.3%
4.  Don't know2.0%


Q.19 Which of the following two parties, Fateh or Hamas, you think should bear the responsibility for not-forming a government of national unity?
1.  Fateh35.0%
2.  Hamas24.4%
3.  Both of them          35.3%
4.  Don't know5.3%


Q.20 Do you evaluate the general economic situation in the Palestinian territories as?
1.  Good4.6%
2.  Middling33.6%
3.  Bad60.9%
4. Don't know0.9%


Q.21 Up to which extent are you at present worried about the subsistence of your family?
1.  Very worried31.6%
2.  Worried52.7%
3.  Not so worried9.8%
4.  Not worried at all4.2%
5.  Don't know1.7%


Q.22 To what extent are you worried about your personal security?
1. Too much worried33.5%
2. Worried48.9%
3. Not so much worried12.7%
4. Not worried at all4.1%
5. Don't know.0.8%


Q.23 What is the degree of your support at present to Mr. Mahmoud Abbas?
1.  Strongly support him13.0%
2.  Somewhat support him52.4%
3.  Somewhat don't support him  22.1%
4.  Strongly don't support him11.2%
5.  Don't know1.3%


Methodology

"All interviews took place on the basis of random choices of respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face", Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies Section at the PCPO, said. The choices were taken from a total of (156) site. These sites are randomly chosen in accordance with PCPO's long experienced methodology. The margin of error was(+/-2.99) at a significance and confidence levels of (5%) and (95%) respectively. Elias Kukali added "the percentage of female respondents was (47.0%) whereas that of the male respondents reached (53.0%). He said the composition of the sample according to the residential area was as follows: (62.0%) West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (38.0%) Gaza Strip. Mr. E. Kukali further pointed out that the allocation of the sample in respect of the type of residence was as follows: (49.9%) city, (32.2%) village and (17.9%) refugee camp.

Contact Persons: Dr. Nabil Kukali & Elias Kukali. Tel: 00970 2 277 4846, Fax: 00970 2 277 4892. Mobile: 00972 547 216 643 / 00970 599 726 878. P.O. Box 15, Beit Sahour - Palestine Email: kukali@p-ol.com  Website: www.pcpo.ps