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Micah HalpernI've Been Thinking.

By Micah Halpern

 

 

 

TODAY GAZA, TOMORROW?
 

The Gaza Redeployment is not just about Israel's withdrawal from the area. It is not just about the relationship between Israelis and Palestinians. It never was. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza has always been a measuring stick, a marker, a barometric tool to determine the winds of change in the region. The fateful day approaches. There are many interested parties and many agenda. Let's examine them.

The most important agenda to examine is that of the United States. Plain and simple, the United States needs this redeployment to happen and they are exerting a tremendous amount of energy to make it happen. The United States is pressuring Israel not just to leave but to also offer aid to the Palestinians on their way out. The United States is pressuring the Palestinians to let this happen and to stop any provocateurs, any acts of terror, from dismantling the process.

The United States envisions peace between Israelis and Palestinians. They see the Gaza Redeployment as a massive step towards the fulfillment of that vision. Today Gaza, tomorrow the West Bank. And they want to make certain that the transition takes place quietly.

The United States needs to prove that they can make good on their promise. They promised to support Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas, they want to secure his position. They believe in him, more than do many of his local Palestinian constituents. They believe that Abbas wants to bring peace to his people. They want the Palestinian people to view Abbas as a strong leader and they think that the Gaza Redeployment will bring proof to the people that with peace comes good, that if peace emerges and liberalization occurs, their lives will be improved, their voices will be heard. The United States also believes, I would say naively, that the best tactic against Palestinian extremists is pelting them with examples of the good that is gained through peace.

The United States believes in good will gestures. Egypt, on the other hand, wants to regain partial control of the area.

The Egyptians are lying low during this process of withdrawal and, as a result, nobody is watching them very closely. They have issues and their own very strong agenda for the Gaza Redeployment.

Gaza is an area that for many years was under Egyptian control. That control was vanquished by Israel. The Egyptians do not see the Palestinians as strong and do not believe that they will ever gain strength, even under the leadership of Abbas. And that pleases the Egyptians. A weak Palestinian government leaves the door open for more experienced Egyptians to enter in a pseudo-advisory capacity and wield power in the area. With the Palestinians "in charge" and with the Israelis out of the area, the Egyptians become the doorkeepers, literally and figuratively, of Gaza. It is the Egyptians who will control the border. It is the Egyptians who will observe from the outside what happens on the inside of Gaza, and then determine their next moves.

In the Palestinian world, Egypt, not the United States, is big brother.

The Palestinians themselves are split into two groups. There are those Palestinians who hope and those Palestinians who hope to sabotage the Gaza Redeployment.

One group of Palestinians believes strongly in Abbas and they are hopeful that he can and will create a better life not just for their children, but also for themselves. They are the silent majority of Palestinians, not just silent, but silenced by the other group of Palestinians, their louder, more enthusiastic brothers and cousins. This group wants the withdrawal to fail and they intend to use the failure as a metaphor for the leadership of Abbas and as a tool with which to topple his government. This group thinks of Abbas not as their leader but as someone who has sold them out, who by virtue of accepting this unilateral withdrawal is collaborating with the enemy. And they want an all-out war with Israel.

The rest of the Arab world is watching, quietly, carefully offering no support, no advice, no encouragement, no words of warning. They are fearful of civil war.

Obviously, the greater Arab world is pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel, there is nothing that will ever change that agenda. Right now they cannot fathom how the Gaza Redeployment will impact on the lives of average Palestinians. So far, and time is running short, they have offered almost no post-withdrawal aid commitments to the Palestinians. They do not know how to approach this unilateral action taken by Israel. They do know, however, that with the withdrawal comes the threat of a Palestinian civil war. If the Gaza Redeployment fails, they will surely, publicly, blame Israel.

There are others who are looking to place blame. And the blame will fall squarely on the broad shoulders of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Israeli Prime Minister Sharon expects, truly believes, that this withdrawal will help protect more Israeli lives, that it will save soldiers and settlers and all citizens from unnecessary death due to terror. He undertook the Gaza Redeployment as a unilateral action for the sake of Israelis, that was his agenda. The prime minister set into action not a negotiated settlement but a unilateral move because he saw it as being in the best interests of Israelis.

Former ministers and members of the Sharon government, Benjamin Netanyahu and Natan Sharansky, accept that the withdrawal is now fact, but want payback for Israelis. They are shouting that now is the time to make demands on the Palestinians. Use the leverage, they say, tie the withdrawal to action against terror or to education or to democracy. Turn this into a big agenda item, not a throw away. Some of their followers, the people in orange, want to topple Sharon for selling out, for selling his soul. It is unlikely that they will bring Sharon down over the disengagement.

Sharon's opposition party, Labor, has similar thoughts but they are more subtle in their actions. The liberal Labor party is hoping to support Sharon in the government during the Gaza Redeployment and then bolt. Labor intends to use the redeployment as a way to resuscitate itself. Before they joined Sharon's government, they will claim, the Gaza Redeployment would never have happened. They joined and the national agenda changed so it is only fair that they take credit for the withdrawal. They want Sharon to stick it out for a few more months giving them the time they need to build themselves up and catapult back into the first leadership chair. Failure will belong to Sharon, success belongs to them.

Failure and success are not at issue when it comes to the European Union and the United Nations. The Gaza Redeployment has been on their agendas for a long time.

The European community and the United Nations believe that the Israelis are doing what they should have done years ago. They believe that they are not doing enough. The EU and the UN do not see the Gaza Redeployment as a unilateral initiative undertaken by Israel. They see it as an entitlement of the Palestinian people and as the correction of Israeli human rights violations. Israel should not be congratulated, it should be apologizing for not withdrawing from Gaza long ago. Their agenda is very different from that of the United States, but their wish is the same, today Gaza, tomorrow the West Bank.

As we all know, a lot can happen between today and tomorrow.
 

Iran's Nukes & Russia

Russia is all set to deliver a first shipment of nuclear fission fuel to the new/old nuclear reactor situated in Busheur, Iran. The plant was originally built by Germany almost thirty years ago. According to Asadollah Saboury, an official Iranian nuclear spokesman, the plant is 84% complete and will receive the material in a few months. Iran has another 20 similar nuclear plants under construction. I know it is hard to pressure Iran to stop their nuclear production.  But what about Russia More pressure must be brought upon Russia to stop this irresponsible selfish behavior. Much more pressure.  Russia just signed a nuclear trade agreement with Iran. They assert that the contract will protect the world from any danger that may arise from nukes in the hands of Iran. This is just plain wrong. We must put a stop to it.
 

Why the Summit Failed

Of course the Summit between Sharon and Abbas failed. The Israeli and the Palestinian are not even on the same planet when it comes to objectives. And the United States is totally disconnected from Israeli/Palestinian reality or they would never push for a Summit that would so obviously fail. Israel is only interested in security. So they want Abbas to crack down on terror. Palestinians are only interested in raising their image on the street and keeping their power. So they want Israel to release more prisoners, lift road blocks and turn over control of more cities. The United States is only interested in getting Israel out of Gaza. So they think compromise will happen because it is what they want. Advance planning is what makes a successful Summit. Wishful thinking doesn't make it in this world. If the US wants Gaza to happen they must put the parties together and broker a deal and enforce the agreement .I suggest doing that now.
 
 
 
 
TERROR: THE FEMALE TOUCH

 

Since the year 2000, 8 Palestinian women have perpetrated suicide attacks killing 39 Israelis. The Israeli army and Security Forces have uncovered 45 acts of terror initiated by women. In the past year over 59 women have attempted attacks against Israelis. One of those attempts took place on Monday. Wafa Samir Ibraim Bas, a 21 year-old Palestinian woman from Jabalya, left her Gaza home with a permission pass to visit Soroka Hospital in Beersheba for a medical check-up. Attached to her clothing, her pants, was more than 22 pounds of explosives.  It was the perfect opportunity. A young woman. An entry permit into Israel for medical treatment. By her own admission and the admission of her handlers, it was assumed that Bas would only be cursorily surveyed at the Erez Crossing. It was assumed that Bas would easily reach her intended target and murder as many people - doctors, nurses, patients, visitors - as 22 pounds of explosives could handle. Luckily, they were wrong, they miscalculated. The intended female suicide bomber was detected. The explosive device was safely detonated by sappers. No one was injured.

Wafa Samir Ibraim Bas had a morning appointment in the Burn Unit of the hospital that had saved her life several months ago. In December of 2004 Bas was badly injured and burned by a gas balloon explosion in her home. Israeli hospitals do not practice a policy of discrimination. All patients are treated alike. Some patients send thank-you notes. This one decided to detonate a bomb. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, interview tapes of the 21 year-old woman as she was escorted aside at the border crossing and asked to remove her pants show that she repeatedly claimed that she had no weapons. When it was clear that the Israelis did not believe her and that she was captured, she tried to detonate then and there. The al Aksa Martyrs' Brigades is the terrorist organization behind this attack. Al Aksa has admitted sending Bas on this mission and choosing Soroka Hospital in Beersheba as the intended, primary target. Al Aksa, the organization affiliated with the PLO, the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the ruling faction within the Palestinian Authority. As Westerners, it seems unfathomable. The Palestinian Authority is supposed to, has pledged to, fight terror not perpetrate terror. And yet, the facts are right there in front of us. As leader, the democratically chosen leader of the Palestinian Authority, Abbas should be in control. Abbas should be able to say to his followers, No More Terror. And they, even the al Aksa Martyrs' Brigades, should listen. Especially they. The question before us is this: is Abbas sending out a double message, or is this pure and deliberate deceit.  Neither choice is acceptable. Terror is unacceptable. Especially when it is proudly perpetrated by those people who pledge to work for peace and peaceful solutions. Especially when the perpetrators fall under the direct responsibility of the ruling party. If al Aksa is responsible, Abbas is responsible.

We have not yet heard anything from the mother of Wafa Samir Ibraim Bas. The mother has not come out saying "how could my daughter do such a thing" and neither has she come out proudly applauding and dancing for joy because her daughter intended to blow herself up and take with her tens of innocent Israelis, doctors, nurses, Arabs and Jews. Last week Secretary of State Condi Rice made a statement to the effect that she is sure Palestinian mothers do not dream of having their children grow up to become suicide bombers. I disagree. I wonder if Bas' mother disagrees.  The entire phenomenon is mind boggling. There are Palestinians, women and men, who so want to murder Israelis that they are willing to kill whatever chance for a future their own people may have. I see no end in sight. Today, a Palestinian woman tried to knife an Israeli soldier.

 

NEW COLUMN OF THE WEEK

 

Blurb:  Martin Indyk and Dennis Ross have concluded that there will be anarchy when Israel leaves Gaza.  Their analysis is not new, but it is newsworthy, says Micah Halpern.  Why?  Because these are two of the men who created the situation that will lead to the anarchy.  These are two of the men who orchestrated the scenario that Israel and the Palestinians find themselves in today.  Indyk and Ross, two men responsible for Yesterday’s Diplomacy, Today’s Mess.

 

 

YESTERDAY’S DIPLOMACY, TODAY’S MESS

 

Now it’s official.  The Palestinian Authority has neither the desire nor the will to control the situation in Gaza after the Israeli withdrawal from the area and they cannot and will not assume control as Hamas attempts to garner newfound strength as a result of the withdrawal.   What makes it official?  Martin Indyk and Dennis Ross, the former ambassador and the special envoy, have proclaimed it to be so.

 

“I don’t see that the Palestinian Authority has the capability or the intention to take control” said Indyk while in Jerusalem this week. Hamas “see themselves now as an equal partner” with Fatah and Authority is the way Ross put it.

 

It just so happens that I agree with them.  Their analysis and my analysis concur.  So why do I find these statements, coming from these men, to be at the same time tragic and surreal?   Because these are the guys responsible for shaping United States policy in the Middle East for the past decade.   Because these are the guys who helped create this mess.  Because for all those years, Dennis Ross and Martin Indyk were duped.

 

Dennis Ross and Martin Indyk played leading roles in shaping the very situation Israel and the Palestinians find themselves in today.   All their great analysis, their insight, their mediations, their secret meetings turn out to be irrelevant given today’s facts on the ground.  They, along with the myriad other United States diplomats and envoys sent to make things better, to move them along, were distracted from the truth because they were goal driven.  Reality played a very small role in determining policy, it was pretense that mattered.

 

Who duped them?  Who played the game better than they did?  Yasser Arafat, certainly.  Arafat was a master manipulator, a master at double speak, a master at promising and never fulfilling.   Yasser Arafat was a confidence man.  And neither Ross nor Indyk understood his con.  And neither one of them understood his true motive, deciphered his modus operandi, or challenged his raison d’etre.     

 

Why?  Because they wanted to, needed to, believe that their goal was near.

 

And that’s why I find it somewhat unusual, bizarre, amusing, to see these men today, the words “expert” and “commentator” under their names.  They espouse their oftentimes ridiculous commentary on “the situation in the Middle East” without truly admitting that they themselves were so heavy handed in dictating the play book that has resulted in so much turbulence and tragedy for the Israeli and Palestinian peoples.  Today, they talk as if they had nothing to do with what happened. They are not alone.  Others, of course, do the same.  Sometimes I laugh out loud when I hear Former CIA and Former FBI people talking about the Middle East and terror.  I’m still waiting to hear someone with enough conviction to say, “well, we were dead wrong on that one, we just misread that situation.”  About a month ago in Washington DC,  Aaron Miller, the third member of the peace team triumvirate, presented his ideas on the failed Middle East campaign.  Miller had the creative gumption to actually say that the failure was because the United States was Israel’s advocate and protector.  Had the US been an impartial mediator maybe things would have turned out differently. That’s a maybe.  But this is for sure:  Of course there will be anarchy when Israel leaves Gaza.   Unless a strong Palestinian police force takes immediate control over Gaza and over all Palestinian areas, there will be lawlessness.

 

Of course there will be anarchy, because there is already anarchy.  Abbas has refused to use his power to force the hooligans the gangs and the terrorists to obey the rules of civil propriety.  Abbas operates out of the fear of creating a civil war, but that fear will backfire and his own actions will lead to the civil war that will oust him. Abbas strives to lead as Arafat ruled.  Allow for disarray.  Allow multiple groups to vie and fight for control amongst one another.  But Abbas does not have Arafat’s style, he doesn’t have his stamina, no one could oust Arafat.

 

There are two groups to blame for the crisis that will arise when Israel departs from Gaza. Israel is not one of them.  They are faulty US policy and strategy and weak myopic Palestinian leadership.  That’s all.  It’s official.

 

 

SEPTEMBER 2005

BEERSHEBA IS NOT GAZA

On Sunday morning, during the morning rush, outside the Central Bus Station of the sleepy, desert, southern Israeli city of Beersheba a suicide bomber detonated. The attack marked the first suicide terrorist bombing since Israel redeployed from Gaza. Islamic Jihad immediately claimed responsibility for the terror attack. They said that a twenty-five year old male named Ayman Zaqiq, from the village of Bet Umar, just south of Bethlehem, was the suicide bomber. The problem with this claim is that Ayman Zaqiq was picked up by Israeli security several days before the attack. Does that mean that Islamic Jihad is not responsible, does it mean that they just messed up on the name? It probably means that several suicide terrorists were dispatched to Beersheba and only one made it while the others were intercepted. It means that Israel has intelligence information, once again, that terrorist organizations hedge their bets by sending out more than one operative per attack. It means, as far as Israelis are concerned, that while some terrorists do slip by, Israeli security forces are doing their job. But one terrorist did slip by and he did detonate. And now lots of people are nodding their heads, wringing their hands and saying "I told you so." But I am telling you that there is no connection between this bombing and Israel getting out of Gaza. Those same people are saying that terrorists feel bolstered and terrorist morale is boosted by Israel's very public leaving of Gaza. Well of course it is. But those people just do not understand terrorist mentality and actions. If they did, they would know that the kind of terror that struck Beersheba will be with Israel for many years to come and it has very little to do with Gaza. Everyone involved in security knows that terror is not going to end even if Palestinians and Israelis settle their differences. Terror attacks will continue for a very long time into the future. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not about to relinquish their raison d'etre. They are committed to the total annihilation of Israel without compromise and with or without a peace treaty. The hope is that the Palestinians will try to prevent terrorists from attacking Israel. The hope is that using their own mechanisms and intelligence tools and police Palestinians will be able to persuade terrorists from attacking Israel. The significant impact that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza had on terrorists is only psychological, not practical. That should be obvious. And terrorists will parlay the psychological factor and use it as a marketing tool. They will convince themselves and their followers and their new recruits that their methods are effective. They will use the Gaza withdrawal as proof that if Israel is hit often enough and hard enough they will succumb, they will change policy and evacuate from all "occupied territories."

But they are wrong.

Past history proves exactly the opposite. The reality of Israeli policy and decision making and even the attitude of the average Israeli is that when Israel is hit by terror Israelis become more and more intransigent and hardline. Under direct pressure from terrorists, Israeli moderates and the left swerve towards the right and become steadfastly anti-negotiation and anti-Palestinian. Look no further than the recent Intifada. The vast majority of those labeled as peace camp rejected any compromise first with Arafat and now with Palestinian President Abbas during the height of the Intifada. The tide has not turned for the Israeli masses, Gaza withdrawal notwithstanding. Israel will continue to reject any agreement until Palestinian leadership begins to act against the terrorists and shows some signs of success. Israel withdrew from Gaza because it was an untenable military position, because there was no way to shield soldiers and settlers, because they were the proverbial sitting ducks. Israel did not withdraw from Gaza because terrorists successfully infiltrated and perpetrated their deadly, dastardly acts.

Beersheba is not Gaza.
 

SEPTEMBER 2005

 

WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO THE UNDERSECRETARY

The United States is undeniably the most powerful country in the world today. The United States is also one of the most misunderstood countries in the world today. That just should not be, and Karen Hughes is out to change the way the world views America.

Karen Hughes is faced with a formidable task. Karen Hughes, undersecretary of state for diplomatic affairs, is the new face of America. The new undersecretary has been described in a wide variety of ways throughout her professional life - driven, presidential confidante, not afraid to make waves or step on toes. All of those will come in handy for Karen Hughes PR czar and World Educator. It has fallen on Karen Hughes to explain to the world why the United States does what it does and why, to make the world realize that there is logic and a strong set of principles behind United States foreign policy. I wish her well. For some reason the Bush administration has left the issue of US foreign policy PR unattended for too long. Perhaps it was just typical US arrogance and myopia. The United States may be part of the big, strong and Western world but they are a minority vastly outnumbered by the smaller, weaker non-Western countries of the world.  I hope that Ms. Hughes can make a difference. But I am not too confident. I am not sure that the new undersecretary for diplomatic affairs has successfully internalized the scope of her position.

It's hard to say "no" to the President of the United States, even if he is a friend, but I do no think that the first public outing for Hughes, even before officially assuming office, should have been as presidential representative at an American event even if it was for ISNA, The Islamic Society of North America, even if it is the largest annual meeting of American Muslims, even if her attendance was very much appreciated by the participants. Muslims in the United States feel besieged. They feel that their community has become the target of federal and local investigations and that actions against them are abusive and discriminatory. It was admirable to have attended the conference, admirable but a colossal mistake. It is a terrible misunderstanding of the orientation and central point of her job. Hughes is not supposed to explain US foreign policy to Americans in America. She is supposed to explain it to our allies and enemies and fence sitters. She is the Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy, that implies foreign, not domestic policy.

The position Karen Hughes has been appointed to dictates that she meet and greet and convince foreign gatherings and individuals, not Americans. It's important that the undersecretary said "We need to foster a sense of common interest and common values among Americans and people of different faiths and different cultures and different countries across the world" but I would have been more moved had Americans not been included in the sentence, I would have been more impressed had she been addressing a non-American audience when expressing that mandate. With all due respect, I have a few suggestions for the new undersecretary of state for public diplomacy. I have a simple plan that will, I think, allow her to do her job more easily and effectively. Convincing the world, especially the parts of the world that foster US hatred and that recruit anti-US suicide/homicide bombers is neither simple nor easy, I know, but perhaps this plan will help.

My Plan:
*Create TV and radio stations that broadcast to those parts of the world that misunderstand, strongly disagree with or strongly disapprove of American foreign policy in their native languages.
*Do not create 24 hour news stations, that is antithetical to the mission.
*Broadcast US Culture - music, fashion, films TV, that is what the people of even those countries that hate the US crave and covet and cannot access on their own.
*Follow the same formula with web sites aimed directly at local audiences.
*Introduce news with an American spin casually, only at the beginning of every hour and half hour, do not hit them over the head, let it gradually insinuate itself into individual consciences.

Here's why the plan will work: Even if people zap and surf to different stations, the US message will get out through kids and those people who love American music and culture. The idea is to reach audiences with an American based message replete with the essential values of democracy and freedom, not to have local Tokyo Rose impersonators or even al Jazeera, put their own spin on things.  This is the only way to defeat non-Western and anti-United States propaganda machines. American culture might not be the highest of world cultures but it is the most popular. Karen Hughes, go with our strengths.
 

 

SEPTEMBER 2005

REFORMING THE UN, IS IT WORTH IT?

Sixty years for the United Nations. Happy Anniversary.

Does the sentiment come with hesitation? It does not. It does, however, come with reservation. Am I amongst the many interested in eliminating that tall, imposing, glass building along the East River skyline? I am not. I do, however, think that, sixty years later, it is time to take a realistic look at what the UN can accomplish and what it cannot. Unless we understand who and what the United Nations represents, until we recognize the real limitations of the United Nations, we as Americans, as Western countries, will never be satisfied with the way this body conducts its business and will never be successful in our attempts to reform the United Nations. Until we take stock of the internal limitations of the United Nations all our efforts at reforming this venerable international body are irrelevant and even self-destructive. The United Nations does not speak for you and me. It is not there to meet our needs as Westerners, certainly not as Americans. We are there to maintain a balance. The UN General Assembly exists to give voice to the small, globally and diplomatically irrelevant nations who feel put upon by the West. And there, it is a "pile up." The United Nations is the only valid place in the world where the enemies of the West have the power to challenge the United States and to attack Israel. And they will never miss an opportunity to do so. Given the present structure of the UN, the mighty United States and wily Israel are powerless against those attacks.

The United Nations General Assembly is not about justice or truth or about democracy. The GA is about all the nations of the world. And even though anywhere between 40%-50% of member nations are democracies, most of those democracies are fragile with despotic groups waiting in the wings, breathing down their necks, cooling their heals, eager and searching for a chance to regain power and overthrow democracy. The United Nations has, for decades, been hamstringed by the anti-semitism, anti-Israel and anti-US decisions of the members in the General Assembly. That is what the UN is about and that will not easily change. They member states are hateful, they hate the West, they hate the US, and they hate Israel. And the United Nations gives them the power and capability to act out that hatred. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and the United States, now under the momentum of newly appointed US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton, have been proposing to reform the United Nations. The US wants to make the UN more useful and less corrupt, more democratic and more in line with Western governments. Annan wants that too, he also wants the UN to be streamlined, he is proposing accountability, he is hoping for a UN that will pave the road for improved human rights around the world.  The problem with Annan as everyone suspected and as anyone familiar with the damning critique of cronyism and corruption, the Volcker report, is now convinced is that he himself has been blind to major elements of corruption under his tenure. The bigger problem is that the tone at the United Nations is set not by friends of the West but by enemies of the US and enemies of the West. Not recognizing this as a sine qua non will doom all efforts at reforming the United Nations. The effort to transform the UN into a more democratically oriented body is destined to fail if the nations themselves do not reform. The effort to create an agency with transparency is admirable but it cannot succeed. The United Nations will never meet the goals of the reformers until the country members are reformed, until democracy is truly, not temporarily, embraced. Until then the United Nations will remain an agency that empowers democracies in name only, democracies that are truly run by dictatorships, despots and demons that have been allowed to hijack an international body created and dedicated to preserving human rights and giving those countries carte blanche to mask their own abuses. It's worth the effort. It will take time. We can make it happen. We must. Do not expect other member nations to join the effort for reform, most nations like things just the way they are. But that's a wish worth making on this anniversary.