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COLUMN OF MICAH HALPERN: I've Been Thinking.

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Micah Halpern

A Monument for Evil

 

Mind games.  Some personalities are so strong that even after death their colleagues, cohorts and supporters are able to successfully manipulate the deceased’s spirit so that it continues to haunt, to torment, to plague those same people the person haunted, tormented and plagued in life. Take, for example, one of the greatest masterminds of terror this millennium has known.  Arch terrorist Abu Musab al Zarqawi.  Metaphorically speaking, Zarqawi is reaching out from the grave in order to agitate the people around him - his enemies and his supporters.  Why metaphorically?  Because the subject of Zarqawi’s grave is precisely the haunting question.

 

Where should Zarqawi be buried?

 

Zarqawi lived in Jordan.  He was also sentenced to death in absentia by Jordan for his role in planning terror attacks that shook the capitol city Amman.  Many members of Zarqawi’s family still call Jordan home and it was there that, in accordance with Muslim tradition, family members mourned the loss of their loved one.  Paying a condolence call is another Islamic tradition.  Several members of Jordan’s parliament, representatives of The Islamic Action Front, paid a condolence call to Zarqawi’s family in Jordan, their countryman.  In paying their respects to the family of the man targeted and killed by the United States Air Force these members of Parliament, members of the government who had sentenced him to death in absentia, remembered him fondly, they recalled his heroic deeds, they praised his life.  They called the deceased terrorist a “martyr.” The Jordanian parliamentarians were censured for their actions.  There was a public call for their party to be expelled from politics and ousted from the political process, they were even detained and interrogated.  Everything that Zarqawi stood for, his actions, his ideals, his values and ideology, his every breath, was antithetical to all that the Hashemite Kingdom’s values. No lesson was learned from the antics of the parliamentarians.  The Zarqawi issue has not yet been put to rest.  Zarqawi supporters want the devil to be remembered - if not as a martyr, then at least as a saint. The brother of Zarqawi, a resident of Jordan, has made public a request to have the body of his brother - which was still under the control of the United States Armed Forces - brought to Jordan.  The claim is that if the body were transferred to Jordan the Zarqawi family would be able to pay the proper respect to their fallen family member.  They would be able to properly mourn Abu Musab al Zarqawi. The United States military and the current Iraqi government are saying No Way to the request.  Jordan has not yet commented, but I am certain that they would echo the United States and Iraq and are wisely removing themselves from the fray for the moment to minimize the validity and legitimacy of the request. 

 

Where is the body right now?  After the Americans killed Zarqawi they removed his body from the building in which he was found and took it to a medical examiner for DNA confirmation.  That probably took place in Iraq.  The Iraqi National Security adviser, Mouwafek al Roubai, is quoted by AP as saying that Zarqawi was buried in a “secret location.”  He says that the body was buried according to Muslim custom.  A US spokesperson has confirmed that Zarqawi has been buried.

 

Who cares where Zarqawi is buried?  We should all - Muslim Fundamentalists and lovers of freedom and democracy - care.  What one group fears the other covets.  The obvious concern is that the grave of Zarqawi will become a center for terrorist ideals and a focal point for galvanizing hate.  The fear is that the gravesite of Abu Musab al Zarqawi will become a monument for evil.   A monument to monster Zarqawi may yet be erected, but the United States, Iraq and Jordan need not assist the architects of the edifice. Even Osama bin Laden, through the release of his latest tape, has reached out from his own netherworld and added his voice to the discussion on Zarqawi’s last resting place and his place in Muslim history and lore.  The tape pays tribute to Zarqawi, the tape proclaims him a hero.  Bin Laden and Zarqawi were not friends.  The tape extolling Zarqawi is nothing more than a prop.  It allows bin Laden the opportunity to portray himself as a great international Muslim leader, one who pays respect to the dead and appeals to the enemy - George Bush - in the name of honor for the dead and in order to console the family of an Islamic fighter.  On the tape bin Laden beseeches the president of the United States to allow the body to be brought to Zarqawi’s family in Jordan. The tape shows that despite the rumor about their disagreements, in death, bin Laden respects Zarqawi as a true Jihadi, a true fighter for Islam.  The tape was released in order to show the Muslim world that Osama bin Laden is not just a great fighter for Islam but a true diplomat for Muslim causes.

 

In Islam, respect for the dead, proper burial and condolences are major dimensions of the final life cycle event.  It is in death and in burial that Muslims are careful, cautious and punctilious.  That is the only way to insure that the body will properly pass on and enter heaven.  And that is why Muslim suicide bombers are so baffling.  It is expressly forbidden by Islam to commit suicide or to kill innocents.  And yet, Zarqawi and other terrorist leaders and organizers routinely and without conscience send out bombers for the sole and exact purpose of perpetrating suicide attacks that kill innocents.  And then, then those suicide bombers are praised within their Muslim communities and heralded as Muslim martyrs. Muslims like Zarqawi sacrificed their place in the kingdom of heaven long ago.

 

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Armies take captives.  Terrorists kidnap.

 

Palestinian terrorists killed two Israeli Defense Force soldiers and kidnapped a third, Gilad Sharit.  The Palestinian attack on an Israeli military outpost was well planned and executed.  Better planned and executed than the myriad other attacks that Palestinian forces regularly attempt and that the Israeli army regularly thwarts.

 

Israel is calling for Hamas, the terrorist force behind the kidnapping, to return their soldier alive and unharmed.  Israel is saying that unless their soldier is returned they will temporarily re-invade Gaza, home base for the terrorists, and destroy Hamas the organization and Hamas the ruling government.  If Israel does enter Gaza they will, I believe, hit hard and furious.  The IDF will conduct surgical strikes, targeting terrorist leaders and operatives.  They will also conduct non-discriminatory strikes in order to stimulate all Palestinians to feel the fear of reprisal.  If Israel re-enters Gaza there will be massive damage and many casualties. For Israel the trade-off is Gilad Shavit or the elimination of Hamas in Gaza. For the Palestinians the trade-off is an Israeli invasion into Gaza for the unity of their people.

 

Hamas, for their part, is actually looking forward to, even welcoming an Israeli strike.  They see it as the perfect opportunity to unify a divided Palestinian people against the common enemy.  They see it as a way to bring gun-toting, warring, Fatah and Hamas and Islamic Jihad members together under the umbrella of Hatred Of The Israeli. Responsibility for the bold attack has been claimed by three Hamas groups:  Hamas proper, The Popular Resistance Committees, and a little known Hamas organization called The Army of Islam.  The groups have issued a joint statement.  They have two demands.  The soldier will be returned to Israel in exchange for all female Palestinian prisoners and all Palestinian minors imprisoned in Israel.  Within the Palestinian Authority there has been a call to try to find the Israeli soldier and free him.  Some voices within the Hamas-led government have spoken out against the kidnapping.  Mahmoud Abbas the president of the Palestinian Authority has begged the kidnappers to let no harm come to the soldier.  But this official PA condemnation of the terrorist attack is, I believe, nothing more than a diplomatic ploy taken out of the Yasser Arafat Handbook Of Damage Control Following A Successful Mission Against Israel.  Arafat, the mastermind of many attacks would, immediately following the attacks, express outrage, cry out for the culprits and say generally anything he thought would stave off Israeli reprisal. 

 

Despite the few public requests, it seems quite clear that Hamas leadership certainly in Damascus knew about the attack and that they are responsible for the attack.  Hamas operates under the principle that military targets are fair game and they claim this attack – rightfully - as a great military victory.  They also claim to have disabled the tank, the powerful Israeli war machine with nothing more than good planning and the aid of Allah. Outside of Gaza there is criticism and condemnation of the kidnapping of Gilad Sharit.  Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, France, the United States and the United Nations have been trying, through diplomatic maneuverings, to make headway with Hamas and with the specific Hamas groups responsible for the kidnapping.  A personal call was placed to the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority expressing the hope that the entire matter would end peacefully.  The prime minister, a Hamas member, a Muslim Fundamentalist, accepted that personal call – from the Pope. Inside Gaza there is dancing and celebration.  As I monitor the Palestinian press I know that the Palestinian people - leaders, thinkers, family members of the attackers, mothers of Palestinians in Israeli prisons and men and women on the street – take pride in the actions of the kidnappers.  The Palestinians are heaping congratulations upon the terrorists who conducted a daring raid that immobilized an Israeli tank and that killed two soldiers and wounded and kidnapped Gilad Sharit.  I would not be surprised if there were more kidnappings to come. Palestinians are saying that they must make certain that at least ten Palestinian prisoners are exchanged for the one Israeli.  One mother asks why her three children sitting in Israeli prisons are less valuable than the one soldier.  I’ll tell her why. 

Her children were not kidnapped, they are in a prison.

Her children receive three proper meals a day, food that is good, plentiful and nutritious, probably better than the rest of her family eats.

Her children have fresh air, medical treatment, heat in the winter even air conditioning in the summer. 

Her children’s lives are not at risk and they may even get out of prison in time. Most of all, the lives of her children and of the children of all Palestinian mothers have been decreed less important, less valuable, less worthy not by the Israelis, but by the Palestinian people themselves.

 

TAKING THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE

 

The prospect of Palestinian civil war is looming closer and closer.   It is a prospect that is daunting not only for Palestinians but for the entire Arab world.  Intra-Palestinian fighting frightens everyone.   

 

The question is how to prevent Palestinians from killing each other.  The Arab world and their best Western and European Union friends have come up with a solution.  They are reviving a tried-but-true mechanism, one that has been used – successfully - throughout the Middle East in order to unify feuding groups.  It is called invoking anti-Israel sentiment and promoting anti-Israel diplomacy.

 

Just think about it.  By invoking anti-Israel sentiment and promoting anti-Israel diplomacy the Palestinians can concentrate on something greater, more nefarious, more awful than the situation their chosen leaders have chosen for them, the people.  And Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is playing right into the hands of anti-Israel promoters.  Believe it or not, the current incarnation of anti-Israel sentiment is couched in an attack on the dreaded notion of Israel’s plans for unilateral actions. 

 

In an absurd twist of diplomatic-correctness, the efforts of Olmert to move Palestinians in the direction of possible statehood are being met with displeasure in certain diplomatic circles.  Olmert is being called arrogant, aggressive, impatient, thoughtless.  How dare he, they are asking.  How dare Israel’s prime minister offer to give up Israeli land to the Palestinians and ask nothing in return?  Who does he think he is?  What does he think he is doing? Olmert’s efforts to chat up world leaders about the lack of a negotiating partner for peace as long as Hamas is in power, about the need to resolve issues and set borders so that Israelis can go about their lives, is being turned against him, against his country and against the process that would lead to Israel exiting from Palestinian areas.          Palestinian President Abbas, the man who was pushing ahead for a Referendum that would include peace with Israel, with Palestinians living side-by-side with Israelis, is now devoting himself to a new plan.  Now, rather than face-off against Hamas and live with the consequences, Abbas is pushing forward a plan that would stop any unilateral decisions on Israel’s side.  And most of the Arab world is jumping at the opportunity to sideline peace with Israel in the name of internal Palestinian peace.  

 

So called liberal Arab states, including nations with previously negotiated peace treaties with Israel, are among Abbas’ most vocal supporters.  Jordan and Egypt have come out with direct statements clearly rejecting any unilateral steps taken by Israel.  The European Union has also stepped up pressure and is engaged in an effort to marginalize if not totally halt Olmert’s intentions. Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the European Union External Relations Commissioner which is the EU’s equivalent of foreign minister, just visited Israel.  She left a mixed message.  On the one hand Ferrero-Waldner praised Olmert’s plan, on the other hand, she criticized it.  The plan, she said, was a “very courageous idea but Europeans believe unilateral steps do not lead to real peace.” Well, Olmert isn’t fooling himself.  Israelis, like Europeans, know that unilateral actions do not lead to “real peace” - no one disputes that.  By undertaking unilateral actions Olmert is underscoring the facts on the ground.  The reality is that Palestinians are not ready to negotiate and proof of that is the ascent of Hamas to power.  The argument should stop right there.  But Benita Ferrero-Waldner continued, not just criticizing but actually threatening Israel.  The EU Commissioner said: “We will not recognize any borders between Israel and the Palestinian Authority determined by unilateral steps.”

 

The question begs asking:  Why is the Palestinian Authority and the Arab world and by extension the European Union and by extension other European countries so interested in mounting an offensive against Israel’s unilateralism when they should be trying to organize a serious Palestinian government with a plan calling for Palestinians to live next to Israel?  The question is rhetorical, we all know why.   The reality is that it is much easier to create a multi-national campaign against Israel than it is to change or harness or discipline extremists from within.  It is far more attractive to the Arab world to trounce Israel than to trounce the Palestinian Authority as weak and ineffective and to label Hamas as being an obstacle – if not “the” obstacle - to peace.   The world has chosen to take the path of least resistance.  If a campaign against Israel blows up, the casualties will only be figurative.  When a campaign against Hamas blows up, the casualties are always literal.

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THINK LIKE A TERRORIST

 

Think like a terrorist.

 

If you want to stop terrorism, you have to think like a terrorist.  Not like a bureaucrat.

 

The Office of Homeland Security is a bureaucracy.  Plain and simple.  The decision to cut 40% off the anti-terrorism funds allocated to New York City, arguably the most famous city in the world, is a bureaucratic decision.  No guts, no heart, no soul, not even any common sense went into the decision.  It is a “just crunch the numbers and make a bureaucratic decision” decision.  The same rules of bureaucracy are being applied in the decision that may cut 15% off of New York’s bio-terror allocation. 

 

Here is the problem.  There are undoubtedly some great minds in the Office of Homeland Security, but not terrorist minds.  And in the business of fighting terror, thinking like a bureaucrat is tantamount to thinking like a victim.  And that is deadly.  Literally, figuratively, deadly. The people given the task of allocating Homeland Security funds used a simple calculus.  They were told that the first target terrorists will hit will be national monuments.  They were told that national monuments represent America and that’s why they are the obvious choice for the next major attack or set of attacks against the United States. The information is accurate.  The thinking that goes along with the information is faulty.  Terrorist do not want to hit America, they want to hit AMERICA.  Terrorists do not only want to hurt the West, they want their supporters and fellow Fundamentalists to know that they hurt the West.  Hurt them bad.  Hit them hard.  They want the world to take notice. 

 

What the men and women of Homeland Security do not understand is that the world notices what goes on in New York and in Washington and in Los Angeles - and cares about what happens there – much more than they notice or care about what happens in Charlotte, North Carolina.  In the world of the terrorist, Charlotte is nowhere. And while it is true that when you bean count, monument for monument, New York does not top the list, that is really not the point.  Terrorists do not just care about destroying any old monument or about inflicting terror on some we-don’t-know-where-it-even-is wasteland.  Terrorists do not target a location purely for the fear factor, not in the United States, not in Europe, not even in the Middle East.  The primary objective in terrorist planning and targeting is value to the terrorist adherents. 

 

How will the attack play back at home?  What awe will it inspire throughout the Muslim world?  Will new recruits swarm to the cause?  Chillicothe and Toledo can relax, if people have never heard of a city, monuments or not, that city will never become a target.   That’s why North Carolina is out.  It might fit the bureaucratic calculus, but it does not fit the criteria of the terrorist calculus.  Does it still need an anti-terror allocation?  Certainly – but not against attack.  North Carolina needs an allocation from Homeland Security because sleeper cells were discovered in Charlotte.  North Carolina, Ohio, Kentucky, these states need human intel and analysis.  Sleeper cells can be cultivated anywhere, but the cities in which the sleepers live will be attacked only by accident and human error.  And the resources needed to flush out sleeper operatives are very different from the resources needed to prevent targeted attacks against monuments, the visible symbols of Western decadence.   In the minds of Americans Mount Rushmore is as mythic as it is large.  But how many Americans even know where Mount Rushmore is?  Were that same monument in New York it would be a target.  In South Dakota the greatest threat to Mount Rushmore remains erosion.

 

The power of terrorists lies in the impact of their attack.  Terrorists need their supporters to believe that the great Allah has reached out to strike at the core of the evil that seeks to corrupt Muslim beliefs and values.  The people delegated to worry about our safety must understand what the terrorist knows to be true.  Not to understand the true objectives of terror puts us all at unnecessary risk.

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Politically Unwise Abbas

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas recently declared that he hopes acting prime minister Ehud Olmert becomes the next Israeli Prime Minister. This was truly the utterance of a foolish politician. No foreign leader should poke their nose into the workings of a stable democracy. Of course, Abbas was stating the obvious. Olmert will certainly be the next Israeli prime minister but in making that politically unwise statement Abbas has achieved exactly the opposite of what he stated. Israel's Labor Party is the ideal pro-peace partner for the Palestinians. Now Labor is perceived to have been stabbed in the back by the ruling Palestinians. So why vote for Labor? Labor will now lose electoral support.On the other side of the spectrum, Likud has run with the Abbas statement saying: see, we told you, even Abbas realizes that Kadima is leftist. Labor loses. Kadima loses. Even if Likud wins this round, they are losers.

So now I'm wondering. Abbas probably does not want an agreement with Israel. Is he smart enough to have done this all intentionally?
 

Iran & the Security Council

I'm Predicting:

The United States is talking about presenting Iran before the UN Security Council for discussion, pressure, censure. Bad Idea. At best, the plan will fail - and Iran will just ignore the Security Council. At worst, the plan will backfire - and Iran will forge ahead paying no heed even to those countries who have begun to make some headway. Yesterday, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns testified before Congress saying that the by next week the Security Council will deal with Iran. The United States may want to turn up the pressure, but the United States has never been good at reading or understanding Iran.  Russia can read the Iranians. Also yesterday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that putting pressure on Iran will not work. In that Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council they have veto power. If Russia doesn't want something to happen, it's not about to happen. Wake up America, you are not running this show.


 

Iranian Syrian Nexus

I'm Predicting:

A recently issued press release from the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)touted a series of projects to be jointly run by Iran and Syria. The projects included joint oil and gas pipelines and a link-up of electricity lines and railway lines. The press release also had Iran expressing interest in co-operation in technical and scientific areas. According to some sources, the transfer of weapons was also discussed.

Why is this interesting?  Because both these countries are being isolated by the rest of the world and now they are looking to hook-up and join forces. Because this union provides both countries with strength, security and cover under fire that neither one has alone. Because, most importantly, this union provides each country with alternative energy in the event of an American or Western strike.  This is a brilliant tactical response. Anticipate future vulnerabilities and attacks and be pre-emptive, be prepared. Iran and Syria are perfect partners against the West. Be on the look out for more Iran/Syria links.


 

Hamas Sees Itself as Liberal

Hamas has told al Qaeda to butt out, to take a hike, to leave them alone. Unofficially and politely, but firmly, never-the-less. Here's what happened: A video of al Qaeda's inimitable number 2 man, Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri, was circulated over the weekend. The video had Zawahiri proclaiming and sermonizing on morality, on Islamic fundamentals and on the chosen path for newly-elected political Hamas.

In response: One Hamas spokesman said: "Hamas believes that Islam is completely different to the ideology of Mr. al Zawarhiri." Another Hamas spokesman, this one in Gaza, said: "Our battle is against the Israeli occupation and our only concern is to restore our rights and serve our people. We have no links with any group or element outside Palestine."
On al Jazeera Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar said: that Hamas was elected through its moderate approach to Islam, which did not compare to al Qaeda's exclusionary tactics. "We are not a movement that labels people infidels or that abandons them. We are a movement that lives the realities of the people and that uses wisdom ... to turn them to Islam."

Did you ever, even in your wildest dreams, think that Hamas would be labeled as "liberal" ?!
 

 

 

PALESTINIAN POLITICS ARE PERCOLATING

 

 

 Political unrest, much like military unrest, has been brewing in the Palestinian Authority for quite some time.  Hamas versus Fatah.  Fatah versus Hamas.  And now, accusations and counter accusations are popping up all over.  I’d say that Palestinian politics is beginning to percolate.  President Abbas is pushing through a Referendum.   The Referendum Abbas wants asserts that Palestinian will live side by side with Israel.  Hamas refuses – unequivocally, to accept the principle of living Israelis, let alone of Palestinians living side-by-side with Israelis. Hamas refuses to even call the Referendum a Referendum.  Instead, they call the Referendum and the document Palestinians would be voting on a “declaration of a coup against the government.” They have called the entire issue illegal. Technically, officially, the Referendum is named the National Reconciliation Document but it is also being referred to by a much more popular title.  Because the document was composed by five Palestinians sitting in Israel’s Hadari prison, the Palestinian press has dubbed it the Prisoner’s Document.  The most senior designer of the document is prisoner Marwan Bargouti, secretary general of Fatah.  Another senior contributor is Abdel Halek Natshe, a leader of Hamas.  Prison, at least Israeli prison, seems to be the great Palestinian equalizer. The document itself contains eighteen points.  The most significant point, the point that Hamas finds it hardest to accept, recognizes Israel within the ‘67 borders.  On that issue the document is unbending.  The document continues with a point long held by Secretary General Bargouti, long before he became one of Israel’s most highly-placed prisoners.  It rejects attacks on Israelis within the ‘67 borders and welcomes attacks on settlers over the border. The document is overwhelming supported by the Palestinian masses.  When it goes to Referendum it will win a significant victory.  And a victory for the Referendum is a definite defeat for Hamas. Hamas does not want to be ousted from office.  Hamas is taking the challenge seriously.  Hamas has begun a counter-campaign.  They have pressured the Hamas and Islamic Jihad prisoners who signed and developed the document to withdrawn their names and their support.  The prisoner/signees now claim that the paper they wrote was never meant as a political document intended for Referendum.  They claim that President Abbas has co-opted the document and manipulated it.  They claim that the President’s actions are an “unacceptable abuse” of the document.  The Palestinians are facing off in what appears to be a case of the (tea)kettle calling the (coffee)pot black. For his part, Abbas has the overwhelming support of the masses, the Palestinian Street.  Abbas says that there is no legal problem with the Referendum.  According to Abbas “There is no article in the basic law that says a referendum is not allowed.  It states that the people are the source of all power.”  He said that “As chairman of the PLO Executive Committee and president of the Palestinian Authority, I have decided to exercise my constitutional right and duty to hold a Referendum over the Document of National Reconciliation.” In order to legally halt the Referendum, Hamas would have to stop it in the Palestinian Parliament.  According to Palestinian law, that would require a two-thirds Parliamentary majority.  The chances of Hamas swaying Parliament is highly unlikely.  Hamas has only 74 of 132 Parliamentary seats, which translates into only slightly over a 50% majority.   And that is why Hamas is trying to defeat the Referendum by turning it upside-down and inside-out. 

 

Hamas is putting the blame on Abbas, challenging his authority for doing something “illegal.”  The Hamas counter-attack is not working. Palestinians are witnessing the beginning of the end of Hamas in power.  Just as they voted Hamas in, they are – through the Referendum – preparing to vote Hamas out.  Because after the referendum will come elections. And while Israel has long awaited the political downfall of Hamas, this is not the way they would have chosen to put Hamas out of power.  The success of the Referendum has a definite downside for Israel.   Palestinian acceptance of the Referendum will mean a shift in pressure forcing Israel to offer serious concessions.  Essentially, the language in the document concerning the ’67 borders is very, very strong.  There is no possibility for compromise on the issue of borders and the 1967 Green Line.  The original document had to be firm.  Otherwise, it would never have been written and never have been accepted by the Palestinian people. Good news for the Palestinians, bad news for the Israelis 

BEERSHEBA IS NOT GAZA

On Sunday morning, during the morning rush, outside the Central Bus Station of the sleepy, desert, southern Israeli city of Beersheba a suicide bomber detonated. The attack marked the first suicide terrorist bombing since Israel redeployed from Gaza. Islamic Jihad immediately claimed responsibility for the terror attack. They said that a twenty-five year old male named Ayman Zaqiq, from the village of Bet Umar, just south of Bethlehem, was the suicide bomber. The problem with this claim is that Ayman Zaqiq was picked up by Israeli security several days before the attack. Does that mean that Islamic Jihad is not responsible, does it mean that they just messed up on the name? It probably means that several suicide terrorists were dispatched to Beersheba and only one made it while the others were intercepted. It means that Israel has intelligence information, once again, that terrorist organizations hedge their bets by sending out more than one operative per attack. It means, as far as Israelis are concerned, that while some terrorists do slip by, Israeli security forces are doing their job. But one terrorist did slip by and he did detonate. And now lots of people are nodding their heads, wringing their hands and saying "I told you so." But I am telling you that there is no connection between this bombing and Israel getting out of Gaza. Those same people are saying that terrorists feel bolstered and terrorist morale is boosted by Israel's very public leaving of Gaza. Well of course it is. But those people just do not understand terrorist mentality and actions. If they did, they would know that the kind of terror that struck Beersheba will be with Israel for many years to come and it has very little to do with Gaza. Everyone involved in security knows that terror is not going to end even if Palestinians and Israelis settle their differences. Terror attacks will continue for a very long time into the future. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not about to relinquish their raison d'etre. They are committed to the total annihilation of Israel without compromise and with or without a peace treaty. The hope is that the Palestinians will try to prevent terrorists from attacking Israel. The hope is that using their own mechanisms and intelligence tools and police Palestinians will be able to persuade terrorists from attacking Israel. The significant impact that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza had on terrorists is only psychological, not practical. That should be obvious. And terrorists will parlay the psychological factor and use it as a marketing tool. They will convince themselves and their followers and their new recruits that their methods are effective. They will use the Gaza withdrawal as proof that if Israel is hit often enough and hard enough they will succumb, they will change policy and evacuate from all "occupied territories."

But they are wrong.

Past history proves exactly the opposite. The reality of Israeli policy and decision making and even the attitude of the average Israeli is that when Israel is hit by terror Israelis become more and more intransigent and hardline. Under direct pressure from terrorists, Israeli moderates and the left swerve towards the right and become steadfastly anti-negotiation and anti-Palestinian. Look no further than the recent Intifada. The vast majority of those labeled as peace camp rejected any compromise first with Arafat and now with Palestinian President Abbas during the height of the Intifada. The tide has not turned for the Israeli masses, Gaza withdrawal notwithstanding. Israel will continue to reject any agreement until Palestinian leadership begins to act against the terrorists and shows some signs of success. Israel withdrew from Gaza because it was an untenable military position, because there was no way to shield soldiers and settlers, because they were the proverbial sitting ducks. Israel did not withdraw from Gaza because terrorists successfully infiltrated and perpetrated their deadly, dastardly acts.

Beersheba is not Gaza.
 

 

Micah HalpernI've Been Thinking.

By Micah Halpern

 

 

 

TODAY GAZA, TOMORROW?
 

The Gaza Redeployment is not just about Israel's withdrawal from the area. It is not just about the relationship between Israelis and Palestinians. It never was. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza has always been a measuring stick, a marker, a barometric tool to determine the winds of change in the region. The fateful day approaches. There are many interested parties and many agenda. Let's examine them.

The most important agenda to examine is that of the United States. Plain and simple, the United States needs this redeployment to happen and they are exerting a tremendous amount of energy to make it happen. The United States is pressuring Israel not just to leave but to also offer aid to the Palestinians on their way out. The United States is pressuring the Palestinians to let this happen and to stop any provocateurs, any acts of terror, from dismantling the process.

The United States envisions peace between Israelis and Palestinians. They see the Gaza Redeployment as a massive step towards the fulfillment of that vision. Today Gaza, tomorrow the West Bank. And they want to make certain that the transition takes place quietly.

The United States needs to prove that they can make good on their promise. They promised to support Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas, they want to secure his position. They believe in him, more than do many of his local Palestinian constituents. They believe that Abbas wants to bring peace to his people. They want the Palestinian people to view Abbas as a strong leader and they think that the Gaza Redeployment will bring proof to the people that with peace comes good, that if peace emerges and liberalization occurs, their lives will be improved, their voices will be heard. The United States also believes, I would say naively, that the best tactic against Palestinian extremists is pelting them with examples of the good that is gained through peace.

The United States believes in good will gestures. Egypt, on the other hand, wants to regain partial control of the area.

The Egyptians are lying low during this process of withdrawal and, as a result, nobody is watching them very closely. They have issues and their own very strong agenda for the Gaza Redeployment.

Gaza is an area that for many years was under Egyptian control. That control was vanquished by Israel. The Egyptians do not see the Palestinians as strong and do not believe that they will ever gain strength, even under the leadership of Abbas. And that pleases the Egyptians. A weak Palestinian government leaves the door open for more experienced Egyptians to enter in a pseudo-advisory capacity and wield power in the area. With the Palestinians "in charge" and with the Israelis out of the area, the Egyptians become the doorkeepers, literally and figuratively, of Gaza. It is the Egyptians who will control the border. It is the Egyptians who will observe from the outside what happens on the inside of Gaza, and then determine their next moves.

In the Palestinian world, Egypt, not the United States, is big brother.

The Palestinians themselves are split into two groups. There are those Palestinians who hope and those Palestinians who hope to sabotage the Gaza Redeployment.

One group of Palestinians believes strongly in Abbas and they are hopeful that he can and will create a better life not just for their children, but also for themselves. They are the silent majority of Palestinians, not just silent, but silenced by the other group of Palestinians, their louder, more enthusiastic brothers and cousins. This group wants the withdrawal to fail and they intend to use the failure as a metaphor for the leadership of Abbas and as a tool with which to topple his government. This group thinks of Abbas not as their leader but as someone who has sold them out, who by virtue of accepting this unilateral withdrawal is collaborating with the enemy. And they want an all-out war with Israel.

The rest of the Arab world is watching, quietly, carefully offering no support, no advice, no encouragement, no words of warning. They are fearful of civil war.

Obviously, the greater Arab world is pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel, there is nothing that will ever change that agenda. Right now they cannot fathom how the Gaza Redeployment will impact on the lives of average Palestinians. So far, and time is running short, they have offered almost no post-withdrawal aid commitments to the Palestinians. They do not know how to approach this unilateral action taken by Israel. They do know, however, that with the withdrawal comes the threat of a Palestinian civil war. If the Gaza Redeployment fails, they will surely, publicly, blame Israel.

There are others who are looking to place blame. And the blame will fall squarely on the broad shoulders of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Israeli Prime Minister Sharon expects, truly believes, that this withdrawal will help protect more Israeli lives, that it will save soldiers and settlers and all citizens from unnecessary death due to terror. He undertook the Gaza Redeployment as a unilateral action for the sake of Israelis, that was his agenda. The prime minister set into action not a negotiated settlement but a unilateral move because he saw it as being in the best interests of Israelis.

Former ministers and members of the Sharon government, Benjamin Netanyahu and Natan Sharansky, accept that the withdrawal is now fact, but want payback for Israelis. They are shouting that now is the time to make demands on the Palestinians. Use the leverage, they say, tie the withdrawal to action against terror or to education or to democracy. Turn this into a big agenda item, not a throw away. Some of their followers, the people in orange, want to topple Sharon for selling out, for selling his soul. It is unlikely that they will bring Sharon down over the disengagement.

Sharon's opposition party, Labor, has similar thoughts but they are more subtle in their actions. The liberal Labor party is hoping to support Sharon in the government during the Gaza Redeployment and then bolt. Labor intends to use the redeployment as a way to resuscitate itself. Before they joined Sharon's government, they will claim, the Gaza Redeployment would never have happened. They joined and the national agenda changed so it is only fair that they take credit for the withdrawal. They want Sharon to stick it out for a few more months giving them the time they need to build themselves up and catapult back into the first leadership chair. Failure will belong to Sharon, success belongs to them.

Failure and success are not at issue when it comes to the European Union and the United Nations. The Gaza Redeployment has been on their agendas for a long time.

The European community and the United Nations believe that the Israelis are doing what they should have done years ago. They believe that they are not doing enough. The EU and the UN do not see the Gaza Redeployment as a unilateral initiative undertaken by Israel. They see it as an entitlement of the Palestinian people and as the correction of Israeli human rights violations. Israel should not be congratulated, it should be apologizing for not withdrawing from Gaza long ago. Their agenda is very different from that of the United States, but their wish is the same, today Gaza, tomorrow the West Bank.

As we all know, a lot can happen between today and tomorrow.
 

Iran's Nukes & Russia

Russia is all set to deliver a first shipment of nuclear fission fuel to the new/old nuclear reactor situated in Busheur, Iran. The plant was originally built by Germany almost thirty years ago. According to Asadollah Saboury, an official Iranian nuclear spokesman, the plant is 84% complete and will receive the material in a few months. Iran has another 20 similar nuclear plants under construction. I know it is hard to pressure Iran to stop their nuclear production.  But what about Russia More pressure must be brought upon Russia to stop this irresponsible selfish behavior. Much more pressure.  Russia just signed a nuclear trade agreement with Iran. They assert that the contract will protect the world from any danger that may arise from nukes in the hands of Iran. This is just plain wrong. We must put a stop to it.
 

Why the Summit Failed

Of course the Summit between Sharon and Abbas failed. The Israeli and the Palestinian are not even on the same planet when it comes to objectives. And the United States is totally disconnected from Israeli/Palestinian reality or they would never push for a Summit that would so obviously fail. Israel is only interested in security. So they want Abbas to crack down on terror. Palestinians are only interested in raising their image on the street and keeping their power. So they want Israel to release more prisoners, lift road blocks and turn over control of more cities. The United States is only interested in getting Israel out of Gaza. So they think compromise will happen because it is what they want. Advance planning is what makes a successful Summit. Wishful thinking doesn't make it in this world. If the US wants Gaza to happen they must put the parties together and broker a deal and enforce the agreement .I suggest doing that now.
 


 

 

 
TERROR: THE FEMALE TOUCH

 

Since the year 2000, 8 Palestinian women have perpetrated suicide attacks killing 39 Israelis. The Israeli army and Security Forces have uncovered 45 acts of terror initiated by women. In the past year over 59 women have attempted attacks against Israelis. One of those attempts took place on Monday. Wafa Samir Ibraim Bas, a 21 year-old Palestinian woman from Jabalya, left her Gaza home with a permission pass to visit Soroka Hospital in Beersheba for a medical check-up. Attached to her clothing, her pants, was more than 22 pounds of explosives.  It was the perfect opportunity. A young woman. An entry permit into Israel for medical treatment. By her own admission and the admission of her handlers, it was assumed that Bas would only be cursorily surveyed at the Erez Crossing. It was assumed that Bas would easily reach her intended target and murder as many people - doctors, nurses, patients, visitors - as 22 pounds of explosives could handle. Luckily, they were wrong, they miscalculated. The intended female suicide bomber was detected. The explosive device was safely detonated by sappers. No one was injured.

Wafa Samir Ibraim Bas had a morning appointment in the Burn Unit of the hospital that had saved her life several months ago. In December of 2004 Bas was badly injured and burned by a gas balloon explosion in her home. Israeli hospitals do not practice a policy of discrimination. All patients are treated alike. Some patients send thank-you notes. This one decided to detonate a bomb. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, interview tapes of the 21 year-old woman as she was escorted aside at the border crossing and asked to remove her pants show that she repeatedly claimed that she had no weapons. When it was clear that the Israelis did not believe her and that she was captured, she tried to detonate then and there. The al Aksa Martyrs' Brigades is the terrorist organization behind this attack. Al Aksa has admitted sending Bas on this mission and choosing Soroka Hospital in Beersheba as the intended, primary target. Al Aksa, the organization affiliated with the PLO, the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the ruling faction within the Palestinian Authority. As Westerners, it seems unfathomable. The Palestinian Authority is supposed to, has pledged to, fight terror not perpetrate terror. And yet, the facts are right there in front of us. As leader, the democratically chosen leader of the Palestinian Authority, Abbas should be in control. Abbas should be able to say to his followers, No More Terror. And they, even the al Aksa Martyrs' Brigades, should listen. Especially they. The question before us is this: is Abbas sending out a double message, or is this pure and deliberate deceit.  Neither choice is acceptable. Terror is unacceptable. Especially when it is proudly perpetrated by those people who pledge to work for peace and peaceful solutions. Especially when the perpetrators fall under the direct responsibility of the ruling party. If al Aksa is responsible, Abbas is responsible.

We have not yet heard anything from the mother of Wafa Samir Ibraim Bas. The mother has not come out saying "how could my daughter do such a thing" and neither has she come out proudly applauding and dancing for joy because her daughter intended to blow herself up and take with her tens of innocent Israelis, doctors, nurses, Arabs and Jews. Last week Secretary of State Condi Rice made a statement to the effect that she is sure Palestinian mothers do not dream of having their children grow up to become suicide bombers. I disagree. I wonder if Bas' mother disagrees.  The entire phenomenon is mind boggling. There are Palestinians, women and men, who so want to murder Israelis that they are willing to kill whatever chance for a future their own people may have. I see no end in sight. Today, a Palestinian woman tried to knife an Israeli soldier.

 

 

YESTERDAY’S DIPLOMACY, TODAY’S MESS

 

Now it’s official.  The Palestinian Authority has neither the desire nor the will to control the situation in Gaza after the Israeli withdrawal from the area and they cannot and will not assume control as Hamas attempts to garner newfound strength as a result of the withdrawal.   What makes it official?  Martin Indyk and Dennis Ross, the former ambassador and the special envoy, have proclaimed it to be so.

 

“I don’t see that the Palestinian Authority has the capability or the intention to take control” said Indyk while in Jerusalem this week. Hamas “see themselves now as an equal partner” with Fatah and Authority is the way Ross put it.

 

It just so happens that I agree with them.  Their analysis and my analysis concur.  So why do I find these statements, coming from these men, to be at the same time tragic and surreal?   Because these are the guys responsible for shaping United States policy in the Middle East for the past decade.   Because these are the guys who helped create this mess.  Because for all those years, Dennis Ross and Martin Indyk were duped.

 

Dennis Ross and Martin Indyk played leading roles in shaping the very situation Israel and the Palestinians find themselves in today.   All their great analysis, their insight, their mediations, their secret meetings turn out to be irrelevant given today’s facts on the ground.  They, along with the myriad other United States diplomats and envoys sent to make things better, to move them along, were distracted from the truth because they were goal driven.  Reality played a very small role in determining policy, it was pretense that mattered.

 

Who duped them?  Who played the game better than they did?  Yasser Arafat, certainly.  Arafat was a master manipulator, a master at double speak, a master at promising and never fulfilling.   Yasser Arafat was a confidence man.  And neither Ross nor Indyk understood his con.  And neither one of them understood his true motive, deciphered his modus operandi, or challenged his raison d’etre.     

 

Why?  Because they wanted to, needed to, believe that their goal was near.

 

And that’s why I find it somewhat unusual, bizarre, amusing, to see these men today, the words “expert” and “commentator” under their names.  They espouse their oftentimes ridiculous commentary on “the situation in the Middle East” without truly admitting that they themselves were so heavy handed in dictating the play book that has resulted in so much turbulence and tragedy for the Israeli and Palestinian peoples.  Today, they talk as if they had nothing to do with what happened. They are not alone.  Others, of course, do the same.  Sometimes I laugh out loud when I hear Former CIA and Former FBI people talking about the Middle East and terror.  I’m still waiting to hear someone with enough conviction to say, “well, we were dead wrong on that one, we just misread that situation.”  About a month ago in Washington DC,  Aaron Miller, the third member of the peace team triumvirate, presented his ideas on the failed Middle East campaign.  Miller had the creative gumption to actually say that the failure was because the United States was Israel’s advocate and protector.  Had the US been an impartial mediator maybe things would have turned out differently. That’s a maybe.  But this is for sure:  Of course there will be anarchy when Israel leaves Gaza.   Unless a strong Palestinian police force takes immediate control over Gaza and over all Palestinian areas, there will be lawlessness.

 

Of course there will be anarchy, because there is already anarchy.  Abbas has refused to use his power to force the hooligans the gangs and the terrorists to obey the rules of civil propriety.  Abbas operates out of the fear of creating a civil war, but that fear will backfire and his own actions will lead to the civil war that will oust him. Abbas strives to lead as Arafat ruled.  Allow for disarray.  Allow multiple groups to vie and fight for control amongst one another.  But Abbas does not have Arafat’s style, he doesn’t have his stamina, no one could oust Arafat.

 

There are two groups to blame for the crisis that will arise when Israel departs from Gaza. Israel is not one of them.  They are faulty US policy and strategy and weak myopic Palestinian leadership.  That’s all.  It’s official.

 

 

SEPTEMBER 2005

BEERSHEBA IS NOT GAZA

On Sunday morning, during the morning rush, outside the Central Bus Station of the sleepy, desert, southern Israeli city of Beersheba a suicide bomber detonated. The attack marked the first suicide terrorist bombing since Israel redeployed from Gaza. Islamic Jihad immediately claimed responsibility for the terror attack. They said that a twenty-five year old male named Ayman Zaqiq, from the village of Bet Umar, just south of Bethlehem, was the suicide bomber. The problem with this claim is that Ayman Zaqiq was picked up by Israeli security several days before the attack. Does that mean that Islamic Jihad is not responsible, does it mean that they just messed up on the name? It probably means that several suicide terrorists were dispatched to Beersheba and only one made it while the others were intercepted. It means that Israel has intelligence information, once again, that terrorist organizations hedge their bets by sending out more than one operative per attack. It means, as far as Israelis are concerned, that while some terrorists do slip by, Israeli security forces are doing their job. But one terrorist did slip by and he did detonate. And now lots of people are nodding their heads, wringing their hands and saying "I told you so." But I am telling you that there is no connection between this bombing and Israel getting out of Gaza. Those same people are saying that terrorists feel bolstered and terrorist morale is boosted by Israel's very public leaving of Gaza. Well of course it is. But those people just do not understand terrorist mentality and actions. If they did, they would know that the kind of terror that struck Beersheba will be with Israel for many years to come and it has very little to do with Gaza. Everyone involved in security knows that terror is not going to end even if Palestinians and Israelis settle their differences. Terror attacks will continue for a very long time into the future. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not about to relinquish their raison d'etre. They are committed to the total annihilation of Israel without compromise and with or without a peace treaty. The hope is that the Palestinians will try to prevent terrorists from attacking Israel. The hope is that using their own mechanisms and intelligence tools and police Palestinians will be able to persuade terrorists from attacking Israel. The significant impact that the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza had on terrorists is only psychological, not practical. That should be obvious. And terrorists will parlay the psychological factor and use it as a marketing tool. They will convince themselves and their followers and their new recruits that their methods are effective. They will use the Gaza withdrawal as proof that if Israel is hit often enough and hard enough they will succumb, they will change policy and evacuate from all "occupied territories."

But they are wrong.

Past history proves exactly the opposite. The reality of Israeli policy and decision making and even the attitude of the average Israeli is that when Israel is hit by terror Israelis become more and more intransigent and hardline. Under direct pressure from terrorists, Israeli moderates and the left swerve towards the right and become steadfastly anti-negotiation and anti-Palestinian. Look no further than the recent Intifada. The vast majority of those labeled as peace camp rejected any compromise first with Arafat and now with Palestinian President Abbas during the height of the Intifada. The tide has not turned for the Israeli masses, Gaza withdrawal notwithstanding. Israel will continue to reject any agreement until Palestinian leadership begins to act against the terrorists and shows some signs of success. Israel withdrew from Gaza because it was an untenable military position, because there was no way to shield soldiers and settlers, because they were the proverbial sitting ducks. Israel did not withdraw from Gaza because terrorists successfully infiltrated and perpetrated their deadly, dastardly acts.

Beersheba is not Gaza.
 

SEPTEMBER 2005

 

WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO THE UNDERSECRETARY

The United States is undeniably the most powerful country in the world today. The United States is also one of the most misunderstood countries in the world today. That just should not be, and Karen Hughes is out to change the way the world views America.

Karen Hughes is faced with a formidable task. Karen Hughes, undersecretary of state for diplomatic affairs, is the new face of America. The new undersecretary has been described in a wide variety of ways throughout her professional life - driven, presidential confidante, not afraid to make waves or step on toes. All of those will come in handy for Karen Hughes PR czar and World Educator. It has fallen on Karen Hughes to explain to the world why the United States does what it does and why, to make the world realize that there is logic and a strong set of principles behind United States foreign policy. I wish her well. For some reason the Bush administration has left the issue of US foreign policy PR unattended for too long. Perhaps it was just typical US arrogance and myopia. The United States may be part of the big, strong and Western world but they are a minority vastly outnumbered by the smaller, weaker non-Western countries of the world.  I hope that Ms. Hughes can make a difference. But I am not too confident. I am not sure that the new undersecretary for diplomatic affairs has successfully internalized the scope of her position.

It's hard to say "no" to the President of the United States, even if he is a friend, but I do no think that the first public outing for Hughes, even before officially assuming office, should have been as presidential representative at an American event even if it was for ISNA, The Islamic Society of North America, even if it is the largest annual meeting of American Muslims, even if her attendance was very much appreciated by the participants. Muslims in the United States feel b