POLITICAL ANALYSIS BY DR. JOSEPH LERNER

 

Excerpts: Security Council Muslim seat? National Democratic Party  (NDP). Egyptian democracy far off ARAB NEWS (Saudi) 11 June '05:"OIC Seeks Muslim Seat at UN Security Council" Arab News -


QUOTE FROM TEXT: "urged the United Nations to include a Muslim country in the Security Council"-

JEDDAH- The 57-member Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) yesterday urged the United Nations to include a Muslim country in the Security Council during the forthcoming expansion of the powerful world body. "Nobody can ignore the Islamic world that represents one fifth of global population and a country must represent the Islamic world in the Security Council," OIC Secretary-General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu said .He said the next meeting of the OIC foreign ministers,  ... to be held in  the Yemeni capital Sanaa on June 28-30, will discuss the issue of the representation of the Islamic world at the Security Council. Ihsanoglu said the OIC must be strengthened to be able to address the problems of the Islamic nation  [IMRA: What is the Islamic nation?] "We should not be ashamed of proposals for domestic reforms. The subject is already there on the agenda of others and we have to take the initiatives for reforms from within,"  ... .


AL-AHRAM WEEKLY 9-15 June '05:"NDP urges opposition to run"
HEADING: "The ongoing national dialogue dug into the new presidential elections law. Gamal Essam El-Din reports"

QUOTES FROM TEXT: "protests centre on the constitutional amendment's harsh restrictions on independent and political party candidates" "One important issue is the committee supervising presidential elections"..."strictly bans receiving money -- either directly or indirectly -- from foreign countries or organisations"..."candidates would not be able to receive donations from Egyptians working abroad".
EXCERPTS: Officials from 11 parties, including the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), attended the most recent round of the national dialogue last week to discuss complementary legislation to the amendment allowing multi-candidate presidential elections. In a controversial 25 May public referendum, the amendment garnered overwhelming support. The same major opposition parties that boycotted the referendum -- the Wafd, Tagammu, Nasserist and Ghad parties -- also continued their boycott of the national dialogue meetings. Their protests centre on the constitutional amendment's harsh restrictions on independent and political party candidates. The dialogue meeting focused on some of the details of the new law, which is expected to go through the Shura Council next Sunday, and the People's Assembly next Tuesday.

In an official conference on Tuesday, Mohamed Kamal, NDP spokesman, announced that a "Presidential Election Law has already been drafted."

 

 

This law, he added, reflects discussions in meetings of the on-going national dialogue conference and the NDP's Policy Secretariat headed by Gamal Mubarak. Once passed by the two houses, Kamal said, the law will then be examined by the Supreme Constitutional Court, which will provide a final ruling on its constitutionality. One important issue is the committee supervising presidential elections, which, according to the amendment, will feature five judges and five public figures. The five judges include the chairman and deputy chairman of the Supreme Constitutional Court, the chairman of Cairo's Appeals Court, and two senior judges from the Court of Cassation and State Council. While the People's Assembly will choose three of the public figures, the Shura Council will select two. According to Safwat El-Sherif, the ruling party's secretary-general and the speaker of the Shura Council, the "Presidential Election Committee" will be in charge of all election procedures, including "declaring the nomination period, determining the final list of candidates, explaining campaign details, like access to mass media, as well as [enforcing] campaign spending  limits." The bill emphasises that all presidential candidates must enjoy equal access to state-run television and radio; they are also authorised to have direct and easy contact with the public anywhere in Egypt. El-Sherif said the law only "strictly bans candidates from making use of places of worship and public facilities (such as government-owned buildings) in election campaigns." In line with the new law's funding ceiling, El- Sherif said, the government would offer every candidate a portion of their funding under the Central Auditing Agency (CAA)'s supervision. The bill also strictly bans receiving money -- either directly or indirectly -- from foreign countries or organisations. Party candidates can receive donations from Egyptians, as long as they are members of the candidate's party. Every candidate, according to the bill, will have to open a bank account to receive donations under CAA's supervision. It is still unclear how the law will regulate funding for independent candidates. NDP Assistant Secretary-General Kamal El- Shazli said candidates would not be able to receive donations from Egyptians working abroad...The funding issue has proven highly contentious. All the parties participating in last Saturday's meeting suggested that all funding come from the state. "They proposed this to eliminate any possible infiltration by private or foreign donations," El-Sherif said. The ruling party's response was that the government couldn't afford the estimated LE2 million per candidate needed for that to occur. "There must be private contributions," El-Sherif said, "with safeguards in place to make sure that these are to be used on the elections, rather than on lining candidates' pockets."

 

 

... NDP, El-Sherif said, was actively encouraging the chairmen of the 10 parties at the meeting to run. He also urged the four major opposition parties boycotting the national dialogue to nominate candidates, "... monopolising power is over". Tagammu Party Chairman Rifaat El-Said told Al-Ahram Weekly that he was concerned that the same pro-NDP biases that made it into the amendment would  also feature prominently in the new law. Al-Ghad Party Chairman Ayman Nour, meanwhile, confirmed his candidacy, vowing that if elected he would catalyse comprehensive democratic reform within two years of taking office. Nour also challenged President Hosni Mubarak to a live televised debate... all the participants were opposed to any foreign intervention in domestic affairs, including international election monitoring. ... the government would soon announce its position on the international monitoring question. That stance -- in response to US President George Bush's repeated suggestions that presidential and parliamentary elections be supervised by international monitors -- would "reflect Egypt's national consensus".

AL-AHRAM WEEKLY 9-15 June '05:" 'Change or be changed' " HEADING: "Those who do not rise to the challenge of reform will simply be left behind, says Alieddin Hilal, leading member of the NDP and one of the party's main proponents of reform, in a comprehensive interview with Hani Shukrallah".

QUOTES FROM TEXT: "NPD has been engaged in an intensive and evolving  internal dialogue over Egypt's future since 2000."..."by 2003 the first annual conference of the NDP began talking of political reform and issued a policy paper"... "In the preamble the party explained the reasons for the reaffirmation of rights already established by the constitution"..."NDP is a large party and is also a governing party, which means that it has to act in a cumulative, evolving manner"..."The party did talk in 2004 of amending specific laws, and did in fact embark on introducing these amendments the following year."..."In the five years following the presidential and legislative elections we will see the door opening wide"..."we should not insist on a specific timetable, because to do so carries undemocratic implications"... "you face the legacy of 50 years' intertwining of political body with the executive"..."all uphold the constitution which stipulates that Egypt is an Islamic state and that Islam is the main source of legislation"

EXCERPTS: The National Democratic Party has said repeatedly it has a comprehensive vision for political reform, yet many people feel this vision remains vague and lacks any time frame for implementation. How would you comment? The vision of a political party is ultimately an expression of an internal dialogue within that party that has led to a consensus. It is not a matter of issuing a comprehensive policy document: this is the easiest thing in the world but a policy document unsupported by party consensus is worthless.

 

POLITICAL ANALYSIS BY DR. JOSEPH LERNER

 

[IMRA: Hilal speaks for one strand of his party.] I would point out in this respect that the NDP has been engaged in an intensive and evolving internal dialogue over Egypt's future since 2000. This evolution is demonstrated, for instance, in the fact that the document issued in 2002, at the party's eighth congress, made no direct reference to political reform, focusing instead on social and economic reform. Yet by 2003 the first annual conference of the NDP began talking of political reform and issued a policy paper on "The Rights of Citizenship and Democracy"... This was the first time the party publicly said that it is no longer acceptable to speak of economic reform first, asserting that there was an immediate need to deal with political, economic and social reform as an integrated package. The 2003 document also outlined the most salient aspects of its concept of political reform. Topping the list was the need to revive and reinvigorate the concept of citizenship. This is an essential prerequisite of reform as understood by the NDP, and it is a result of the conclusion that ideas of citizenship have, both directly and indirectly, been suffering a certain corrosion.. .The second salient element of political reform as envisioned by the NDP in its 2003 paper concerned modernising the relationship between the citizen and the state. For the first time the NDP considered reconstituting the relationship between the Egyptian citizen and the police, for instance, as a constitutive element of political reform.

The third element of political reform as envisioned by the 2003 paper concerned legislative reform. Since then the NDP has set itself the task of reforming a raft of legislation organising the political life of the country. This includes the electoral law, the Peoples Assembly law, the law on the exercise of political rights and the political parties law among others...The results were apparent in the second annual conference of the NDP in September 2004, which issued two documents. The first, "The Rights of the Egyptian Citizen", is tantamount to a human rights declaration.

 In 20 pages this document set forth 19 basic rights enshrined in the constitution, including the right to life, the right to prohibition of torture, the rights to health, education, work as well as the right to form political parties and associations; in short, it covered the gamut of civil and political rights. In the preamble the party explained the reasons for its reaffirmation of rights already established by the constitution. The paper also dealt in considerable detail with the legislative component of political reform. We identified four laws for amendment, setting out the main features of such amendments, including a provision for establishing a supreme electoral committee, the amendment of the People's Assembly law and political parties law. There were, in addition, concrete and detailed suggestions regarding administrative decentralisation and the empowerment of civil society. As such, the document further crystallised and concretised ideas contained in the 2003 paper.
I must point out ... the NDP is a large party, and is also a governing party, which means that it has to act in a cumulative, evolving manner; it needs to elaborate ideas, formulate them as programmes and then work towards implementing them. As for the time frame for putting reform programmes into effect -- this is not the same thing as having a vision for reform. It depends on a whole set of conditions being in place -- for instance, the modernisation of prevalent cultural structures, which is an integral part of political reform. Certainly, there have been reservations expressed about the speed with which this NDP reform vision has been implemented, some of which is justified and some which is not. The party did talk in 2004 of amending specific laws, and did in fact embark on introducing these amendments the following year. Work is progressing on amending three out of four laws the NDP promised would be amended, and the new legislation is to be put before parliament soon. Furthermore, when President Mubarak called for the amendment of Article 76 of the constitution, he pointed out that the amendment would be followed by other steps.
I believe that in the five years following the presidential and legislative elections we will see the door opening wide to further steps along the path of political reform. This is a natural progression that should take place on the basis of a national consensus and, of course, within a particular time frame. But we should not insist on a specific timetable, because to do so carries undemocratic implications. It is imperative that political reform be based on national consensus. But what of the events on referendum day, 25 April? How do these tally with such a commitment? Certainly, two regrettable incidents occurred on that day, but we must put this in perspective.

 

 

 These incidents took place in one governorate, Cairo, out of the country's 26 governorates, and at two sites ...there were 45,000 polling stations operating, out of which only about 30 saw any problems. So the referendum, in the end, can be characterised as having been calm, with problems occurring in less than 1 per cent of polling stations. What this means is that we are not speaking of a phenomenon, but of particular incidents. We might also note that many similar demonstrations have been held at the same site, the Press Syndicate, before and since 25 April, without incident. Having said this, let me state in unequivocal terms that what happened on 25 April at the Press Syndicate and the Saad Zaghloul Mausoleum must be condemned politically. They were criminal acts and abhorrent in moral terms. The NDP, especially in the context of its new thinking, cannot and will not condone methods that involve violence and thuggery. You speak of spreading a culture of democracy. But is there not a contradiction between the modernist, liberal discourse adopted by the NDP in the economic sphere, and its political discourse, which remains close to the totalitarian idiom of the Arab Socialist Union? This was particularly notable in the NDP's management of the debate on the referendum, characterised by a high degree of intolerance, including accusations of treason hurled at its opponents. There are differing perceptions of this matter  ...even if we disagree on their interpretation -- then we have to acknowledge that many leading members of the NDP have engaged in televised, open and public dialogue with major opposition figures, including those who called for the boycott. These TV programmes gave a wide platform to all views, including those of the opposition.

All Egyptian political parties are patriotic parties working within the framework of the constitution. All of us, the majority party and the opposition, are in one boat, sailing towards the future, seeking political and economic progress and stability. Great change lies ahead, and the problem is that we as a society have yet to assimilate the depth and profundity of what is taking place today in our country. Times of great change such as those we are living through are also times of confusion. On occasion the rules of the game become blurred and there is a great deal of discrepancy in the degree to which various people are able and willing to accept that change is afoot. We need to be armed with a great deal of tolerance and perseverance. We need to understand that democratic development in any society involves a major process of reeducation. The NDP is  ...the direct descendent of the Arab Socialist Union it has been the party of the state for over 50 years. As someone who is identified with the reformist trend within the NDP, how do you envisage its transformation into an effective political tendency within Egyptian society, distinct and separate from the state? such a transformation is a precondition for Egypt's political development. It is easier said than done, you face the legacy of 50 years' intertwining of the political body with the executive.
Had it been merely a legislative legacy it would be easy to deal with. But this legacy has been ingrained in the awareness of citizens and of many leading members of the NDP....The opposition press often calls for separating the presidency and the executive on the one hand and the party on the other. But such a step could easily be reduced to a stage play. Let us assume that President Mubarak declares tomorrow that he is no longer leader of the NDP.  I don't believe that it would change a thing....[IMRA: The problem lies in the character of the party.] In legal terms all political parties have the same status  ... All are, from a legal point of view, private institutions, irrespective of whether or not they have members in government.
 

As such, party membership, including that of the NDP, does not provide those who hold it with executive power in any shape or form. This is something that some NDP members may be unable to comprehend fully but it is the real status as established by the law. Cumulative measures need to be taken in order to deepen and underline this understanding. For example, we must work to ensure the implementation of what has been agreed upon in allowing equal opportunities for all candidates, whether in presidential or legislative elections, to express their views through the media. We need to ensure also that they enjoy equal access to public facilities for the purpose of campaigning. We need to ensure adherence to the code of ethics agreed between the NDP and the opposition parties that government ministers and other officials should clearly demarcate their activities as government officials and their activities as party members. Government facilities should not, under any circumstance, be used for campaigning purposes by ruling party officials. It has become apparent that there are different currents within the NDP. There has been speculation over internal struggles in the party. Yet all this remains opaque, subject to rumour and conjecture. Wouldn't you agree that this lack of transparency is yet another feature of a Soviet-style legacy? The NDP is a large party, heir to several intellectual and political legacies. Furthermore, the party includes different sections and people of diverse political and ideological backgrounds, all of which makes for a complex series of discourses.

The problem is how to maintain the party as such a broad-based organisation and not allow this to hamper its effectiveness or its ability to eventually reach a consensus. What I can say with certainty is that the wheels of change in Egypt are turning a lot faster now, especially after the president's initiative to amend Article 76. Elections are taking place throughout the region; ... the horizon is open sources of information are multiplying almost daily. Egypt does not intend to stay apart from all of this. The desire for change is compelling, and this is something all political leaders, within the NDP and outside it, must confront. They must rise to the challenge. Those who do not change will be changed, or simply left behind. The NDP leadership has reiterated its rejection of religious-based parties. But what if the Muslim Brotherhood which, ...  is the major political opposition in the country, were to abandon theocratic slogans such as "the Qur'an is our constitution".

 

 Can you see any circumstances in which it will be allowed legal access to the political arena? The stability of any political system is based on its ability to represent the diverse political forces within society. As such a political system needs to act to bring about the inclusion of all political currents, as long as they respect the constitution.  Religion is a point of reference for all of Egypt's political parties. They all uphold the constitution which stipulates that Egypt is an Islamic state and that Islam is the main source of legislation. It is inappropriate to allow for the establishment of a political party the political discourse of which is religious rather than civic. How can I engage in political debate with a person who is holding the Qur'an aloft? Faced by the Qur'an I can only bow my head. The main opposition parties have withdrawn from the national dialogue. What gestures, if any, does the NDP intend to make to entice them back? we are, all of us, in the same boat, and just as there are issues of contention between the political parties there are also issues that bring them together. All are working for the public good. All are patriotic. To bandy accusations of treason ...  serves nobody, and the only way to resolve differences is through democratic dialogue. I am certain that the national dialogue will continue, and while we may come up against disagreements on occasion, we will always find ways to compromise, so that together we can steer our country towards a peaceful transition.

Dr. Joseph Lerner, Co-Director IMRA